A New Index to Assess the Effect of Climate Change on Karst Spring Flow Rate

A New Index to Assess the Effect of Climate Change on Karst Spring Flow Rate

Sustainability, Vol. 16, Pages 1326: A New Index to Assess the Effect of Climate Change on Karst Spring Flow Rate

Sustainability doi: 10.3390/su16031326

Ahmad Behrouj Peely
Zargham Mohammadi
Vianney Sivelle
David Labat
Mostafa Naderi

Karstic aquifers, because of their conduit system, are susceptible to climate change. Ten karst springs in the Zagros region were selected to investigate the impact of climate change under three CMIP6 scenarios: SSP1-1.9, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5. This study was conducted in three steps: downscaling climate projection, analyzing spring discharge time series, and introducing a new index to assess the impact of climate change on spring flow rate. Applying LARS-WG6, precipitation was downscaled at 14 stations in the study area. Moreover, time series and trend analysis showed that the selected springs have experienced a decrease in their flow rate. Assuming the covariance function between precipitation and spring discharge is constant, new indices (i.e., , , and ) were introduced to highlight the effect of climate change according to the three scenarios. is the variability of spring discharge from past to future, is spring discharge variability over the historical data, and is the effect of precipitation and spring discharge change together. has a range from −0.25 to 0.25 below and above, which is indicative that two extreme conditions including the spring dryness and overflow are in effect, respectively. The main results revealed that the degree of impact at each spring is a function of climate change scenarios and hydrogeological characteristics of the karstic systems. A more noticeable negative trend in spring flow rate is observed for the karst springs characterized by a dominant conduit flow regime and low matrix storage, located in the areas with low cumulative rainfall, and has a stronger relationship with precipitation. Based on the results, decisions on the management of karst water resources should be made considering where the springs bear free surface and pressurized flow conditions.

Disasters Expo USA, is proud to be supported by Inergency for their next upcoming edition on March 6th & 7th 2024!

The leading event mitigating the world’s most costly disasters is returning to the Miami Beach

Convention Center and we want you to join us at the industry’s central platform for emergency management professionals.
Disasters Expo USA is proud to provide a central platform for the industry to connect and
engage with the industry’s leading professionals to better prepare, protect, prevent, respond
and recover from the disasters of today.
Hosting a dedicated platform for the convergence of disaster risk reduction, the keynote line up for Disasters Expo USA 2024 will provide an insight into successful case studies and
programs to accurately prepare for disasters. Featuring sessions from the likes of The Federal Emergency Management Agency,
NASA, The National Aeronautics and Space Administration, NOAA, The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, TSA and several more this event is certainly providing you with the knowledge
required to prepare, respond and recover to disasters.
With over 50 hours worth of unmissable content, exciting new features such as their Disaster
Resilience Roundtable, Emergency Response Live, an Immersive Hurricane Simulation and
much more over just two days, you are guaranteed to gain an all-encompassing insight into
the industry to tackle the challenges of disasters.
By uniting global disaster risk management experts, well experienced emergency
responders and the leading innovators from the world, the event is the hub of the solutions
that provide attendees with tools that they can use to protect the communities and mitigate
the damage from disasters.
Tickets for the event are $119, but we have been given the promo code: HUGI100 that will
enable you to attend the event for FREE!

So don’t miss out and register today: https://shorturl.at/aikrW

And in case you missed it, here is our ultimate road trip playlist is the perfect mix of podcasts, and hidden gems that will keep you energized for the entire journey


This website uses cookies to improve your experience. We'll assume you're ok with this, but you can opt-out if you wish. Accept Read More