Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 120
|Mesoscale Discussion 120
Mesoscale Discussion 0120 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Areas affected...TX Big Country into the Edwards Plateau Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 15... Valid 110556Z - 110730Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 15 continues. SUMMARY...The large hail threat is expected to increase overnight as storms move eastward. DISCUSSION...Elevated convection erupted earlier this evening from the western part of the Edwards Plateau into the TX Big Country, as an upper low approaching from NM began to impinge on the western portion of the primary instability axis. Increasing deep-layer shear will be supportive of organized convection overnight as convection moves eastward, and a few supercells may continue to evolve (like recent development south of Abilene and west of San Angelo) out of the ongoing elevated storm cluster overnight. MUCAPE increasing into 1000 J/kg and steep midlevel lapse rates will continue to support a hail threat, with very large hail of 2-2.5 inches in diameter possible with any stronger supercell. As long as storms remain semi-discrete and elevated, hail will be the primary threat, with perhaps some localized strong gusts. If convection can build into the southern portion of WW 15 closer to the surface boundary, then the threat may increase for a near-surface-based supercell, which might pose a conditional risk of all severe hazards. That scenario remains very uncertain at this time, however. ..Dean.. 02/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF... LAT...LON 30510217 31780056 32369941 32939903 32789829 32239821 31209886 30120009 29780059 29660102 29660115 29730188 29860225 30260237 30510217
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