Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 121

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 121

Mesoscale Discussion 121
MD 121 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 0121
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0126 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024

   Areas affected...central Texas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 15...

   Valid 110726Z - 110930Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 15

   SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms will continue to spread
   east-northeastward toward the Interstate 35 corridor of north
   central and central Texas through 3-5 AM CST.  This activity may
   continue to pose some risk for severe hail and gusty winds, mainly
   near/north of the Junction through Austin vicinities.

   DISCUSSION...Stronger flow around the 500 mb level is still nosing
   into areas near/north of the Texas Big Bend.  But a more modest
   preceding speed maximum, which likely has provided support for the
   evolving ongoing cluster of storms, is forecast to continue
   propagating north-northeastward across central Texas through 09-11Z.

   The associated convection likely will remain rooted within lift
   associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, above cold
   surface-based air now nosing south-southeast of the Texas South
   Plains.  North of the Junction/Kerrville/Austin/College Station
   vicinities, a more modestly cool and stable near-surface layer is
   not likely to modify much in advance of the convection.  However,
   elevated instability and cloud-bearing layer shear may remain
   sufficient to continue supporting some risk for severe hail and
   gusty winds, particularly near the southern flank of the convective
   system passing near/north of the Junction and Austin vicinities. 
   Farther south, where mid/upper forcing for ascent becomes more
   negligible, warmer and more strongly capping mid-level air is
   forecast to inhibit convective development.

   ..Kerr.. 02/11/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   31429922 32429854 32119668 30629761 29989967 30610013

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