Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 121
|Mesoscale Discussion 121
Mesoscale Discussion 0121 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Areas affected...central Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 15... Valid 110726Z - 110930Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 15 continues. SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms will continue to spread east-northeastward toward the Interstate 35 corridor of north central and central Texas through 3-5 AM CST. This activity may continue to pose some risk for severe hail and gusty winds, mainly near/north of the Junction through Austin vicinities. DISCUSSION...Stronger flow around the 500 mb level is still nosing into areas near/north of the Texas Big Bend. But a more modest preceding speed maximum, which likely has provided support for the evolving ongoing cluster of storms, is forecast to continue propagating north-northeastward across central Texas through 09-11Z. The associated convection likely will remain rooted within lift associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, above cold surface-based air now nosing south-southeast of the Texas South Plains. North of the Junction/Kerrville/Austin/College Station vicinities, a more modestly cool and stable near-surface layer is not likely to modify much in advance of the convection. However, elevated instability and cloud-bearing layer shear may remain sufficient to continue supporting some risk for severe hail and gusty winds, particularly near the southern flank of the convective system passing near/north of the Junction and Austin vicinities. Farther south, where mid/upper forcing for ascent becomes more negligible, warmer and more strongly capping mid-level air is forecast to inhibit convective development. ..Kerr.. 02/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 31429922 32429854 32119668 30629761 29989967 30610013 31429922
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