Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2319
|Mesoscale Discussion 2319
Mesoscale Discussion 2319 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Areas affected...Parts of central/southern Alabama into west-central Georgia Concerning...Tornado Watch 718... Valid 100553Z - 100800Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 718 continues. SUMMARY...Modest reductions in MLCIN have allowed activity in Alabama to intensify. Greater low/mid-level ascent has fostered additional discrete storms ahead of the cold front. Tornadoes and damaging winds will remain possible into the overnight. A watch east of WW 717 can be needed if discrete storms mature/intensify. DISCUSSION...Objective mesoanalysis has shown MLCIN decreasing across central/southern Alabama over the last hour or so. This is likely due to some weak theta-e advection within the low-levels. At the same time, an increase in intensity of two linear segments west and southwest and Birmingham has also been noted. Low-level shear from area VAD profiles continue to suggest potential for embedded QLCS circulations and brief tornadoes. Farther east, as has been the case much of the evening, discrete elements are again trying to mature from southeast Alabama into west-central Georgia. With ascent from the mid-level trough and a modest increase in the low-level jet, this activity seems likely to continue. The primary question with these discrete storms is how mature they will become. Buoyancy drops off to the east, but some eastward push of the better airmass is possible as the trough continues its approach. Should a storm mature, the environment might be similarly supportive of tornadoes farther east as well. This activity will have to be monitored and a watch can be needed if further intensification occurs. Otherwise, strong to severe wind gusts will also be a concern, particularly with any more organized linear segments. ..Wendt.. 12/10/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... LAT...LON 32648820 33548746 33968572 34028458 33758434 32878426 32198469 31678500 31288560 31138618 31338728 31708799 32648820
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