Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2319

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2319

Mesoscale Discussion 2319
MD 2319 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 2319
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1153 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2023

   Areas affected...Parts of central/southern Alabama into west-central

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 718...

   Valid 100553Z - 100800Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 718 continues.

   SUMMARY...Modest reductions in MLCIN have allowed activity in
   Alabama to intensify. Greater low/mid-level ascent has fostered
   additional discrete storms ahead of the cold front. Tornadoes and
   damaging winds will remain possible into the overnight. A watch east
   of WW 717 can be needed if discrete storms mature/intensify.

   DISCUSSION...Objective mesoanalysis has shown MLCIN decreasing
   across central/southern Alabama over the last hour or so. This is
   likely due to some weak theta-e advection within the low-levels. At
   the same time, an increase in intensity of two linear segments west
   and southwest and Birmingham has also been noted. Low-level shear
   from area VAD profiles continue to suggest potential for embedded
   QLCS circulations and brief tornadoes. Farther east, as has been the
   case much of the evening, discrete elements are again trying to
   mature from southeast Alabama into west-central Georgia. With ascent
   from the mid-level trough and a modest increase in the low-level
   jet, this activity seems likely to continue. The primary question
   with these discrete storms is how mature they will become. Buoyancy
   drops off to the east, but some eastward push of the better airmass
   is possible as the trough continues its approach. Should a storm
   mature, the environment might be similarly supportive of tornadoes
   farther east as well. This activity will have to be monitored and a
   watch can be needed if further intensification occurs. Otherwise,
   strong to severe wind gusts will also be a concern, particularly
   with any more organized linear segments.

   ..Wendt.. 12/10/2023

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   32648820 33548746 33968572 34028458 33758434 32878426
               32198469 31678500 31288560 31138618 31338728 31708799

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