Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2321
|Mesoscale Discussion 2321
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Mesoscale Discussion 2321 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Areas affected...Portions of the FL Panhandle...southern/eastern AL...and western GA Concerning...Tornado Watch 719... Valid 101000Z - 101130Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 719 continues. SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat, including the potential for a couple of tornadoes, continues early this morning. DISCUSSION...Around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE exists in a narrow corridor ahead of ongoing convection and a southeastward-moving cold front across parts of the western FL Panhandle, southern/eastern AL, and western GA. Even with some stability and near-neutral boundary-layer lapse rates noted in RAP forecast soundings across this region, sufficient low-level moisture still likely exists to support surface-based convection. Deep-layer shear remains more than adequate for organized updrafts, with enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow associated with an upper trough aiding around 40-55 kt of effective bulk shear. A mix of short, bowing line segments and occasional supercell structures has been observed over the past couple of hours. Current expectations are for this mixed convective mode to continue for a few more hours early this morning as this activity spreads generally east-northeastward. 150-200 m2/s2 of 0-1-km SRH is still present along/ahead of this convection per latest VWPs from KEVX/KEOX. Accordingly, any supercell that can be sustained remains capable of producing a tornado. Isolated damaging winds may also occur with the more linear convection along/near the cold front. ..Gleason.. 12/10/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... LAT...LON 30358685 31258694 32628565 33058427 30938482 29708529 29978567 30268631 30358685
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