Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2321

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2321

Mesoscale Discussion 2321
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   Mesoscale Discussion 2321
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0400 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

   Areas affected...Portions of the FL Panhandle...southern/eastern
   AL...and western GA

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 719...

   Valid 101000Z - 101130Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 719 continues.

   SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat, including the potential for a
   couple of tornadoes, continues early this morning.

   DISCUSSION...Around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE exists in a narrow
   corridor ahead of ongoing convection and a southeastward-moving cold
   front across parts of the western FL Panhandle, southern/eastern AL,
   and western GA. Even with some stability and near-neutral
   boundary-layer lapse rates noted in RAP forecast soundings across
   this region, sufficient low-level moisture still likely exists to
   support surface-based convection. Deep-layer shear remains more than
   adequate for organized updrafts, with enhanced southwesterly
   mid-level flow associated with an upper trough aiding around 40-55
   kt of effective bulk shear. A mix of short, bowing line segments and
   occasional supercell structures has been observed over the past
   couple of hours. Current expectations are for this mixed convective
   mode to continue for a few more hours early this morning as this
   activity spreads generally east-northeastward. 150-200 m2/s2 of
   0-1-km SRH is still present along/ahead of this convection per
   latest VWPs from KEVX/KEOX. Accordingly, any supercell that can be
   sustained remains capable of producing a tornado. Isolated damaging
   winds may also occur with the more linear convection along/near the
   cold front.

   ..Gleason.. 12/10/2023

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   30358685 31258694 32628565 33058427 30938482 29708529
               29978567 30268631 30358685 

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