Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2326

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2326

Mesoscale Discussion 2326
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   Mesoscale Discussion 2326
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1205 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

   Areas affected...Portions of eastern NC...northeastern SC...and
   southeast VA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 101805Z - 102030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Monitoring portions of eastern NC, northeastern SC, and
   southeastern VA for a gradual increase in severe-storm potential
   this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar data across portions of eastern NC,
   northeastern SC, and the coastal waters indicates northward-moving
   clusters of mainly disorganized storms. This activity is likely
   being driven by low/midlevel warm advection and coastal convergence
   amid strong low-level south-southwesterly flow (per MHX/LTX VWP
   data). Through the afternoon, continued boundary-layer positive
   theta-e advection should destabilize the coastal air mass amid
   filtered diurnal heating in cloud breaks. The increasing
   surface-based instability (albeit weak), coupled with strengthening
   low/deep-layer shear -- characterized by increasingly large
   clockwise-turning low-level hodographs -- will favor a gradual
   increase in severe-storm potential through the afternoon. A couple
   tornadoes and damaging winds will be the main concerns.

   ..Weinman/Guyer.. 12/10/2023

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   35047789 34717867 34387909 33997918 33677905 33617865
               33747796 33987750 34587645 35127549 35917541 36497561
               36767578 36867626 36807675 36307698 35577722 35047789 

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