Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 361

   Mesoscale Discussion 0361
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0511 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023

   Areas affected...Central Alabama

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 262211Z - 262345Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...A tornado watch will likely be issued by 2245Z for parts
   of central AL, as an additional round of severe storms spread
   eastward from MS this evening.

   DISCUSSION...An east/west-oriented, outflow-modified moisture
   gradient extends across parts of central AL (near/just south of
   Birmingham). While a few strong to severe storms are ongoing south
   of this boundary (in Severe Thunderstorm Watch 86), an additional
   round of severe thunderstorms is expected to evolve out of eastern
   MS and perhaps southern AL in the next few hours. This activity will
   be aided by a developing/strengthening low-level jet (and related
   warm advection) over the central Gulf Coast later this evening. The
   strengthening southerly low-level jet beneath enhanced
   west-southwesterly flow aloft will favor discrete or semi-discrete
   supercell development given the weak large-scale ascent. With
   increasing low-level streamwise vorticity and surface-based inflow
   for these discrete/semi-discrete supercells, the tornado threat
   (along with hail and damaging winds) will gradually increase.
   Therefore, a tornado watch will likely be issued by 2245Z.

   ..Weinman/Thompson.. 03/26/2023

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...

   LAT...LON   31768821 32238841 33158819 33398773 33428691 33388631
               33268554 33008525 32448516 31948534 31708569 31658630
               31598710 31648767 31768821