3 weather wild cards to watch this summer | Climate and Agriculture in the Southeast

While we have all been watching the current strong El Nino for signs of weakening and swinging to La Nina, that is not the only factor that will impact the weather across the United States this summer. This year another big factor will be the sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic, which are currently far above their average for this time of year. These temperatures are not expected to cool much between now and the start of the Atlantic hurricane season and could even increase, providing a ready source of heat energy for tropical storms to feed on and become hurricanes.

Last year, the Atlantic was also warm, but the strong jet stream aloft due to the developing El Nino kept most of those storms over the Atlantic and very few of them reached the coast of the US. This year, with La Nina likely to be in place by the heart of the hurricane season, there will be no high-level jet to prevent tropical waves from developing, and we could see many more storms develop. I have seen some unofficial (and pretty speculative) predictions of up to 25 named storms this year, although it is much too early to say how active it will be with any degree of certainty with El Nino still firmly in place. The spring predictability barrier makes it hard to put a lot of trust in any forecasts so early in the year, but it is a cause for concern.

This article from Farm Progress also mentioned the position of the Bermuda High as a factor in where storms are likely to go. Last year, it was very far to the east and so directed Atlantic storms to the north well offshore from the US. But if it plants itself to the west, then the US and especially the Southeast could be right in the path of many of those storms. With ocean and Gulf temperatures expected to be warmer than usual again due to high starting temperatures and the rising temperature trend due to global warming, that could mean some strong storms reach us here in the Southeast, although they could also hit farther west. We will all be watching this closely as the official hurricane forecasts start to come out later this year.