Attributing Biological Weapons Use

The White House has given the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) a lead role in U.S. efforts to strengthen the United Nations Secretary-General’s Mechanism for Investigation of Alleged Use of Chemical and Biological Weapons (UNSGM). In 2022, a White House report highlighted the importance of determining the facts related to the attribution of alleged use of biological weapons (BW), including toxin weapons. That 2022 report aimed to outline the U.S. government’s approach to counter the full range of possibly catastrophic biological incidents, whether natural, accidental, or deliberate, and outlines goals and objectives for strengthening the biodefense enterprise. It also identifies priorities and target areas for each mission objective during a biological incident.

In this report, the authors examine issues related to the attribution of BW use and identify areas in which DoD could enhance its capabilities to (1) support U.S. investigative capabilities into alleged uses of biological and toxin weapons and (2) strengthen international efforts, specifically United Nations mechanisms, to hold state and nonstate actors accountable for BW use.

This research was conducted within the International Security and Defense Policy Program of the RAND National Security Research Division.

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