Fault Tree Analysis of Trade-Offs between Environmental Flows and Agricultural Water Productivity in the Lake Urmia Sub-Basin Using Agent-Based Modeling
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4.2.3. Destructive Water Transfer Systems
Protecting and conserving water in irrigation and drainage networks should be considered one of the cost-effective solutions in water projects. Therefore, the destructive water transfer system may lead to economic failure in the LU basin. The failure caused by this event is similar to the water loss event along the transmission path and is calculated as follows:
In Figure 10a,b and Figure 11a–d, the probability of the main event is determined based on the probability assigned to the basic events. Indiscriminate water abstraction, dam construction, land-use changes, non-compliance with environmental rights for water, increased CO2 emissions, low WP, and social and economic conditions are among the important intermediate factors for the failure of the Urmia Lake basin due to human factors. Climate changes (floods, droughts) are important natural factors for reducing water resources in the LU sub-basin.
In Table 9, the ranking of basic events effective in the non-DTIM of LU sub-basin was calculated.
According to Table 9, the basic events are sorted in descending order by the greatest impact on the vertex event. The higher the value of the Ix index, the more important the basic event is in the vertex event. The results show that the low awareness of the basin residents and the lack of demands of farmers are the most important failure factors in the LU basin, with a failure probability of 0.86 and 0.90, respectively. Finally, the probability of failure of the main event (non-DTIM in the LU sub-basin) was 0.50. The quantity and quality of water resources in the LU can be considered the most important factors affecting the sustainability of its ecological function. However, both factors are influenced by human activities, particularly the increase in cultivated area and the development of irrigation in the upstream sections of this basin. Increasing water use along with the implementation of agricultural development plans will reduce the quantity and quality of water entering the LU basin. In recent years, the lack of environmental protection measures in the LU basin has led to the disappearance of rare species.
In addition, the events of a lack of sufficient training, insufficient knowledge, and management of irrigation systems have a significant impact on the lack of non-DTIM in the LU sub-basin. The participation of users in decision-making and the development of coordination between different organizations in water resources management are the most important parameters in the sustainable management of agricultural water resources. Participatory and centralization events were identified as key components in water resources management, which is consistent with the results of the present study [54,55,56,57], Farmers’ communities are the first trustees of water resources in the LU sub-basin, which is highly dependent on water resources. The lack of water resources in the LU sub-basin causes the loss of economic activities and disrupts the biological balance. These results are consistent with the studies of [23,58]. These studies also emphasize the participation and role of farmers in the management and exploitation of water resources. Governance and its effectiveness, which correspond to the development and management of surface and underground water resources, were introduced as intermediate events dependent on other events. The results of this study are consistent with the findings of [59,60]. The farming community is the primary manager of water resources in the LU sub-basin, which is highly dependent on water resources. The lack of water resources in the LU sub-basin leads to the loss of economic activities and disrupts the biological balance. These results are consistent with the studies by [58] that emphasize the participation and role of farmers in the management and use of water resources. Governance and its effectiveness corresponding to the development and management of surface and groundwater resources were introduced as intermediate events dependent on other events. The results of this study are consistent with the findings of [59,60].
The government is an influential player in decision-making on LU restoration programs. In addition to government supervision and training, stakeholders must be empowered to implement the prescribed programs (e.g., reducing water consumption) and revitalize LU. However, this local-level approach has not yielded success in structuring the requirements for the implementation of LU restoration programs. In other words, restoring LU is not the concern of stakeholders, and the government is failing to build consensus, achieve user satisfaction and participation, create alternative value for water, and awareness and knowledge of upgrading society and getting to know the real problems and creating solutions for the restoration of LU. Furthermore, farmers, as key beneficiaries, view the restoration of LU as a form of governance and show a desire to achieve this goal. The government’s performance in sensitizing the farming community has been weak, and the politically motivated messages tended to play a destructive role. A key factor in the failure was the avoidance of government and stakeholder involvement, as well as inadequate internal and cross-border management in the LU basin caused by centralized legislation, multiple decision-making centers, and inaccurate planning of water supply and demand. The creation of integrated management based on a comprehensive law and plan is the most effective strategy in this area to achieve the sustainable development of the LU basin. Managing the LU basin in an integrated manner that balances regional function and farmers’ empowerment can achieve the government’s policy objectives.
Due to the lack of “implementation-feedback-learning” mechanisms, the government has not taken advantage of the impending obstacles to learn from and achieve success. In this way, when faced with many problems, instead of finding solutions, it erased them instead of solving them. For example, the strategy to reduce water consumption from dams for use in this sector by 40% was gradually replaced by a 40% reduction in water consumption in the agricultural sector, which has a significantly smaller impact on water supplies than initially expected. Therefore, it is necessary to strengthen and develop educational and promotional activities in the Urmia Lake basin to improve farmers’ attitudes and self-efficacy and expand their knowledge and skills in using irrigation systems.
Studies show that there is a positive relationship between extension calls, use of communication channels, social participation, and technical knowledge of farmers and their attitude towards the use of irrigation systems [61,62]. Studies show that there are problems in the LU basin, such as that the government is at the center of the problem, has a technical view, and is satisfied with the cross-sectional results, and that there is no real goal that can be achieved with the government’s results consistent with the present study [58,59]. Training farmers in the LU basin about the consequences of lake drying and involving local communities in the restoration process can be successful. To achieve the goals and implement the plans to restore LU, farmers’ trust in the government is crucial. Traditional agriculture in the LU basin is not profitable despite the region’s high water consumption. Plans to restore LU demonstrate the importance of farmers in the restoration and provide an opportunity for development and sustainable agriculture in the LU basin. By using training tools to improve LU’s water resources and revitalize the lake, farmers can contribute to the engagement of surrounding communities. By allocating funds and implementing construction projects and policies, the government has taken measures to revitalize LU. However, to reduce water consumption in LU, experts and advocates must work together to promote local culture, awareness, and engagement. The management and control of the LU basin depend heavily on the residents’ awareness of the values of the basin and the threats to its further development [7,59,62]. To prevent the collapse of the LU basin, one of the main objectives is to raise awareness among farmers. To achieve this, the government needs to strengthen its capacity [63].
A similar study concluded that the lack of community perspective in regional planning, the development and lack of codified laws in the basins, the absence of land-use plans, and the lack of sufficient information for the residents of the basin are the most important reasons for social failure. This is consistent with the results of the present study [9].
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