Holistic Environmental Risk Index for Oil and Gas Industry in Colombia
1. Introduction
Environmental risk is the quantitative or qualitative evaluation of the danger of an adverse impact on the environment—which refers to the probability of the occurrence of an unfavorable situation that may lead to the destruction of ecosystems, alongside the disappearance or gradual deterioration of biodiverse populations, loss of quality of life and natural resources, and an impact on energy—due to the economic activity in a certain area [1]. Anthropogenic activities have caused the overexploitation of natural resources, resulting in biodiversity loss in ecosystems worldwide [2]. Another significant environmental concern affecting these ecosystems is accidental or chronic oil pollution [3]. In 2010, the largest oil spill in the history of the United States that occurred on the coast of the Gulf of Mexico caused one of the most significant environmental disasters in history [4]. In 2018, the Lizama 158 well located in the municipality of Barrancabermeja, Santander, Colombia, presented an oil outcrop, which caused, according to official figures, the deaths of 2442 animals and affected 5507 trees [5]. In Colombia, operational risk in the hydrocarbon transportation phase is mainly due to repetitive actions carried out by third parties, such as external fraud, fortuitous events, and terrorist acts, which can lead to the collapse of sensitive ecosystems [6,7,8].
The concept of risk pertains to something uncertain, tied to random chance and potentiality, regarding events that have not yet occurred. It is abstract, complex, and can only exist in the future. Recent efforts to assess disaster risk for management purposes have revolved around calculating the potential economic, social, and environmental impacts of a physical event at a specific location and time. However, there has been a lack of comprehensive conceptualization of risk; instead, fragmentation has prevailed as different disciplinary approaches estimate or calculate risk separately. Achieving an interdisciplinary estimation of risk requires consideration not just of projected physical damage and casualties or economic losses but also of social dynamics along with organizational and institutional aspects [9].
A global bibliographic review was conducted, followed by a specific focus on Colombia to assess the ecological impact of technological events in the oil and gas industry on the environment. The initial findings reveal that environmental disasters resulting from hydrocarbon project activities, particularly oil spills, have had significant negative effects on marine ecosystems [10,11,12,13,14,15], including on corals, benthic organisms, fish, mollusks, birds, plankton, mangroves, marine mammals, and reptiles. The consequences range from obstructing the sunlight necessary for photosynthesis to contaminating the food chain and reducing biodiversity [16,17,18,19,20]. For Colombia, only a spill that occurred in Cabo Manglares in the department of Nariño in 1976 [21] was found, where the sinking of the Tanker St. Peter caused an oil leak, impacting the fishing industry and mangroves in the Tumaco municipality. While ocean spills have catastrophic effects, they rarely occur, especially in Colombia. However, from 1980 to 2020, over 2800 terrorist attacks on oil infrastructures led to more than 3.7 million barrels of hydrocarbons spilling into the environment. This has impacted soil quality and various ecosystems, including surface waters, flora, fauna (including birds, mammals, and reptiles), amphibians, and fish [8]. Therefore, terrorist attacks are a major hazard for oil spills in Colombia [8,22,23].
Vulnerability can be defined as an internal risk factor of a subject or system exposed to a hazard, corresponding to its intrinsic predisposition to be affected or susceptible to suffering damage [9]. Ecological vulnerability in this study refers to the predisposition or susceptibility of the environment to be affected or suffer damage in the case of an oil spill. The susceptibility of ecosystems, flora, and fauna to be affected initially depends on the volume and characteristics of the oil. However, ecosystems at risk may vary in their levels of vulnerability because oil sensitivity is inherent to the environment, which may be less or more sensitive depending on its characteristics [24,25,26,27]. Ecological vulnerability is a term used to describe how easily a specific system can change due to internal or external disturbances, reflecting its sensitivity and lack of adaptation capacity. Researchers believe that vulnerability consists of three elements: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Exposure measures a system’s susceptibility to environmental and social stresses. The value of vulnerability determines the potential degree of system damage under the influence of accidents, while sensitivity reflects the unit’s response to stressors [28,29,30,31,32,33,34,35].
Environmental risk assessment (ERA) is predominantly a scientific activity that involves a critical review of the available data for the purpose of identifying and possibly quantifying the risks associated with a potential threat [36]. The ERA process aims to identify, analyze, and evaluate risks in order to determine the most effective management actions when faced with uncertainty. Environmental risk is calculated by first identifying hazards and then evaluating their probability of occurrence and potential consequences on the environment. Environmental risk is commonly expressed as follows [37]:
A bibliographic review was conducted to gather information on the existing methodologies for environmental risk assessment in the oil and gas industry. The initial findings are qualitative methods; the most prominent examples of this type of risk assessment method are matrix-based techniques. A risk matrix is created in three steps. First, ordinates to the probability are assigned ranks, and then abscissas are applied to the results of the severity/ranks. The combination of these ranking levels determines the ranking of risks [38]. For this methodology, five papers were revised [36,39,40,41,42]. The main findings reveal that while the risk matrix methodology is efficient and requires minimal data, the lack of consideration of statistical data in assessing the probability and consequences leads to a higher level of uncertainty in the results.
Environmental risk assessment methodologies often rely on indices to calculate the potential risks posed by various pollutants. For example, Murat’s [43] environmental risk methodology focuses on the risks associated with oil pollution in coastal areas, using indices and methodologies to determine the impact on marine environments and the effectiveness of pollution prevention measures. Similarly, Celis-Hernandez et al. [44] studied used indices like the enrichment factor (EF), geo-accumulation index (Igeo), adverse effect index (AEI), and pollution load index (PLI) to assess the pollution levels in mangrove ecosystems due to oil pollution. Zhu et al. [45]’s study combined automatic identification system data with other data to assess oil spill risks in coastal China. The study used indices like the oil spill rate and accident probability to analyze the risk of oil spills in different areas. Lastly, Qi Zhou [46] constructed a risk assessment system for water sources under the influence of oil spill accidents. This system includes indices for determining the risk of oil spill accidents and their impact on water sources. In summary, these studies demonstrate the importance of using indices in environmental risk assessment to understand the potential risks posed by different variables.
Different probabilistic methods have been developed to reduce uncertainty in environmental risk assessment. Guo [47] developed a statistical risk assessment model that combines a wave–current model, an oil spill model, and a probabilistic methodology using Monte Carlo simulation. It predicts the risk of oil spills in seven steps: the characterization of spilled oil, selection of spill timing, evaluation of environmental conditions, simulation of transport and fate of the oil slick, repetition of simulations for stability statistics, analysis of hypothetical spill data, and integration with environmental sensitivity to develop a risk map. This methodology’s great advantage is its ability to spatially identify the areas in which the environment is most likely to be impacted. However, it does not explore the vulnerability of the environment; instead, it focuses solely on the hazard component.
Developing a probabilistic method can also be achieved through Bayesian networks, which are graphical representations defined by a set of nodes and directed arcs. Each node is associated with a probability table called a conditional probability table. This method offers certain advantages as it reveals a more comprehensive risk profile of causes and effects [48]. Arzaghi et al. [49] proposed a methodology based on the US EPA framework for the probabilistic analysis of ecological risk arising from the release of oil from a subsea pipeline in the Arctic region. The exposure analysis and modeling of the fate and transport of spilled oil are crucial components in estimating risk. This methodology differs from previous studies by giving equal importance to both threat and vulnerability, thereby putting greater confidence in environmental risk assessment.
A holistic approach to risk assessment encompasses risk from a complete viewpoint. This involves considering the potential ecological damage directly related to hazard events, as well as understanding how non-hazard-dependent factors, such as social, economic, and environmental elements, exacerbate existing ecological risk conditions in terms of anticipatory capacity, resistance, response, and recovery capabilities [50]. Based on the holistic approach for the case of urban seismic risk evaluation and evaluating risk from a holistic perspective to improve resilience at a global level [50,51,52], we define environmental risk as the interaction between hazard, exposure, and vulnerability, where hazard typically pertains to ecological impacts resulting from oil spill events. Exposure indicates the susceptibility of the flora, fauna, and ecosystems to be damaged (ecological vulnerability directly associated with oil spill events), along with underlying non-oil-spill-dependent factors that exacerbate existing risk conditions due to a lack of capacity to anticipate, resist, respond to, or recover from adverse impacts and environmental fragility (Figure 1). The main objective of this paper was to develop a holistic methodology to evaluate the environmental risk associated with projects in Colombia’s hydrocarbon sector. To achieve this, the following specific objectives were established: (1) Identify and characterize the operational, environmental, social, and economic factors influencing the environmental risk of oil and gas projects in Colombia to integrate them into the proposed methodology. (2) Propose a method for evaluating the effectiveness of companies’ environmental risk management performance in the hydrocarbon sector in Colombia. (3) Validate the proposed methodology through its application in two case studies and compare it with an alternative model to assess its effectiveness and applicability within the Colombian context.
Environmental risk management in oil and gas projects is a crucial challenge for ensuring the sustainability and protection of ecosystems, especially in biodiverse regions such as Colombia. Despite the promulgation of Decree 2157 of 2017 [53], which established guidelines for disaster risk management plan development, there is a notable gap in applying holistic methodologies that fully integrate the environmental, social, and economic dimensions in the oil and gas sector. This research aims to design a holistic methodology to determine the environmental risks within risk management plans for oil and gas projects in Colombia. The significance of this study lies in its potential to offer a holistic approach that meets the demands set by the aforementioned decree while ensuring protection of people’s property and their natural, cultural, and productive environment. Through this approach, we aim to identify underlying factors and intrinsic characteristics of society that can influence environmental risk management. This project will not only address an important gap in the scientific literature by offering perspectives from a holistic vision but will also contribute to formulating more effective sustainable policy practices for Colombia’s oil and gas industry, enhancing resilience against disasters while minimizing negative environmental impacts.
4. Discussion
This is the first time a holistic approach has been used to evaluate environmental risk in hydrocarbon projects. This evaluation allowed us to determine, at the Colombian level, which factors do not depend on the spill that increase or decrease risk. During the workshop held with the company in the case study, it was observed that the company was aware of its shortcomings, including the deficit in quantifying losses despite having a record of disaster events and the lack of equipment for monitoring spills or possible leaks, since this process is carried out in an analogous manner through visual tours. In addition, although the personnel are trained to deal with fires or occupational accidents, there is no training in terms of oil spills, and finally, the company does not prepare communities to deal with disasters, considering that they are the first responders when an emergency occurs. This shows that the companies were not aware that these shortcomings increased environmental risk. Conducting a self-assessment of its performance in the risk management of environmental disasters allowed the company to identify improvement actions, clarifying that risk reduction measures must be identified using integrated models and comprehensive analysis [36]. This study also found that environmental risk may be underestimated if socioeconomic variables are not considered.
Previous research has primarily focused on the probability and consequences of oil spills. However, this study takes a multidisciplinary approach, considering not only the ecological impact but also the socioeconomic, organizational, and institutional aspects related to the exploration and exploitation of hydrocarbons. This broader perspective contributes to a more comprehensive risk assessment.
The methodology proposed in this study introduces a significant innovation by considering Colombian armed conflict as a key factor that increases environmental risk in oil and gas projects. This inclusion is based on international evidence demonstrating how armed conflicts can trigger environmental disasters, both through the use of pollutants as weapons and the direct destruction of oil infrastructure. For instance, during the 2006 Lebanon War, Israel attacked oil storage facilities, leading to an oil spill with severe effects on marine and coastal life [90]. In the 1991 Gulf War, Iraqi forces burning Kuwaiti oil fields caused a massive spill, severely affecting the environment and human health [91]. More recently, in Yemen’s Safer oil tanker, abandonment during armed conflict poses imminent risks of an oil spill with devastating consequences for its ecosystems [92]. These examples underscore the importance of considering armed conflict as an environmental risk factor in oil and gas projects while highlighting the need for a holistic methodology addressing this complex interaction between armed conflict and environmental risks. This variable’s inclusion represents a significant advance toward understanding and managing the risks associated with Colombia’s oil industry by emphasizing not only security but also its impact from an environmental sustainability perspective. These findings have profound potential to emphasize the need to intensify efforts to resolve armed conflict as a strategy for reducing environmental risk at the national level, while highlighting the importance of mitigation measures for vulnerable ecosystems.
Although this methodology is designed to be replicated for any project in Colombia, it could also be applied in other countries by evaluating the specific underlying factors of that territory. For example, the 2019 oil spill on the northeastern coast of Brazil was associated with largely ineffective government actions. It took 30 days for the federal government to initiate a response, which amplified the impacts. This situation was attributed to the context of installed government, as public policies supporting environmental protection and health were dismantled [93].
Limitations of this study exist due to the lack of clear statistical data on oil spill losses, making it difficult to assess variables like affected fauna. Although data on oil spills in Colombia exist, they are not always available for the direct comparison and quantitative assessment of environmental losses. Additionally, limited and often non-disaggregated wildlife data make assessing specific impacts on local biodiversity challenging. Furthermore, other impacted components, such as air quality during crude oil burning, were not considered; this could release air pollutants with negative effects on the environment [94,95]. However, specific data on air quality in affected areas were unavailable for inclusion in our risk assessment. Workshops held with sector companies aimed to identify and evaluate influencing variables, but they may have missed some relevant factors. As research progresses, new variables may emerge that should be included in a more comprehensive evaluation tool.
It is crucial to remember that indicators, in general, are not intended to pinpoint risk management measures. These measures should be identified using integrated models and thorough analysis.
5. Conclusions
This study presented a conceptual framework and a multidisciplinary assessment model for environmental risk analysis in the oil and gas industry in Colombia and introduced the holistic environmental risk index. This study’s findings show that while companies in the industry are aware of their shortcomings, there is a lack of awareness regarding how these shortcomings contribute to increased environmental risk. The armed conflict in Colombia has a significant impact on environmental risk, particularly affecting the most sensitive ecosystems with high levels of risk. Other factors that should be considered for environmental risk assessment include ecological impact, land cover, and response time, among others.
These findings have profound potential to assist companies in improving their processes and prioritizing actions to reduce risks. They also emphasize the need to intensify efforts to resolve armed conflict as a strategy for reducing environmental risk at the national level, while highlighting the importance of mitigation measures for vulnerable eco-systems.
This study presented an innovative approach to assessing environmental risks in hydrocarbon projects from both practical and theoretical perspectives. This groundbreaking assessment identified critical factors beyond oil spills influencing environmental risk and provides a solid basis for informed decision making on risk management. However, like any rigorous evaluation, this initial methodology has uncertainties; therefore, it is recommended that further workshops are conducted with different sector companies to assess additional descriptors or modifying factor weights. This collaborative approach will help refine the HERi index and promote greater awareness toward more effective sustainable management actions in Colombia’s oil and gas industry.
The application of the HERi methodology in the case studies revealed that areas with more sensitive and less resilient coverages tend to have a higher level of moderate risk compared to other areas with artificialized or agricultural coverages. In contrast, the two Arauca cases showed that the dynamics of armed conflict have a greater impact on risk assessment, with a high index value.
The HERi methodology provides a more accurate evaluation of environmental risk compared to other methodologies as these tend to underestimate risk by not taking into account variables such as armed conflict. Given the complex dynamics and context in Colombia, it is crucial for companies to include this factor in their studies.
