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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 100

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 100

Mesoscale Discussion 100
MD 100 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 0100
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0818 PM CST Tue Jan 24 2023

   Areas affected...Southeast Mississippi...southern Alabama...extreme
   western Florida Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 250218Z - 250345Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Tornado watch will likely be issued by 03z for portions of
   the central Gulf Coast, including parts of southern Mississippi,
   southern Alabama, and extreme western Florida Panhandle.

   DISCUSSION...Surface low has moved inland across south-central LA
   and is forecast to track into west-central MS late this evening. LLJ
   will also translate inland and focus over northeast MS/northwest AL
   as the upstream low ejects toward the Arklatex. As a result,
   low-level trajectories are becoming more favorable for modified Gulf
   air mass to move onshore along the central Gulf Coast. Latest
   observational data suggests mid 60s surface dew points are about 50
   mi south of Pascagoula with upper 60s observed at buoy 42040. This
   air mass should continue advancing inland and buoyancy will increase
   across southern MS/AL into the western FL Panhandle over the next
   several hours. While large-scale forcing is beginning to focus more
   across the mid-south region, isolated supercells should continue to
   evolve within the warm advection zone as it shifts east.
   Additionally, frontal squall line will also surge east into this
   region with embedded supercells. Tornado threat will increase as
   surface dew points rise through the mid 60s. New tornado watch will
   likely be issued by 03z.

   ..Darrow/Guyer.. 01/25/2023

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   31248949 31068762 30608722 30108766 30288960 31248949 

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