Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 100

4
Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 100












Mesoscale Discussion 100
MD 100 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 0100
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0633 PM CST Fri Feb 02 2024

   Areas affected...portions of northern into central Texas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 13...

   Valid 030033Z - 030200Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 13
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across northern portions of
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch 13 over northern to central Texas.
   Damaging gusts and large hail remain the primary concerns, though a
   tornado cannot be ruled out, especially with stronger QLCS
   circulations.

   DISCUSSION...Strong thunderstorms are merging into a singular squall
   line across portions of northern into central TX as large-scale
   ascent continues to overspread the southern Plains. MRMS mosaic
   radar imagery had displayed possible severe hail with the earlier
   discrete storm modes, with a tornado also reported in southwestern
   Haskell County, TX in the past hour. While a couple instances of
   severe hail can still occur with the stronger storm cores,
   damaging gusts may become a relatively greater threat this evening
   given the transition to more linear storm modes. 

   KDYX radar data has also shown brief instances of strong low-level
   rotation embedded within the maturing QLCS. Deep-layer is modest
   (i.e. 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear per 00Z mesoanalysis).
   However the mesoanalysis also shows 200 m2/s2 of effective SRH, and
   the FWS VAD shows over 300 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH with enlarged hodograph
   curvature. Since the deep-layer shear vectors are also oriented
   roughly normal to the convective line, a QLCS tornado cannot be
   ruled out this evening.

   ..Squitieri.. 02/03/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

   LAT...LON   31809993 31910013 32370012 32979991 33679951 33939870
               33799836 33339822 32629819 31949842 31719919 31809993 


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