Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 100
|Mesoscale Discussion 100
Mesoscale Discussion 0100 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0633 PM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Areas affected...portions of northern into central Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 13... Valid 030033Z - 030200Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 13 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across northern portions of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 13 over northern to central Texas. Damaging gusts and large hail remain the primary concerns, though a tornado cannot be ruled out, especially with stronger QLCS circulations. DISCUSSION...Strong thunderstorms are merging into a singular squall line across portions of northern into central TX as large-scale ascent continues to overspread the southern Plains. MRMS mosaic radar imagery had displayed possible severe hail with the earlier discrete storm modes, with a tornado also reported in southwestern Haskell County, TX in the past hour. While a couple instances of severe hail can still occur with the stronger storm cores, damaging gusts may become a relatively greater threat this evening given the transition to more linear storm modes. KDYX radar data has also shown brief instances of strong low-level rotation embedded within the maturing QLCS. Deep-layer is modest (i.e. 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear per 00Z mesoanalysis). However the mesoanalysis also shows 200 m2/s2 of effective SRH, and the FWS VAD shows over 300 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH with enlarged hodograph curvature. Since the deep-layer shear vectors are also oriented roughly normal to the convective line, a QLCS tornado cannot be ruled out this evening. ..Squitieri.. 02/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT... LAT...LON 31809993 31910013 32370012 32979991 33679951 33939870 33799836 33339822 32629819 31949842 31719919 31809993
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