Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 187

   Mesoscale Discussion 0187
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0512 PM CST Sun Mar 03 2024

   Areas affected...Parts of northwest Wisconsin

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 032312Z - 040115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A strong storm or two capable of locally damaging gusts
   cannot be ruled out during the next few hours across parts of
   northwest Wisconsin.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar data from MPX indicates widely scattered
   thunderstorms streaming northward across northwest Wisconsin,
   largely aided by strong low-level warm-air advection beneath the
   left exit region of a robust upper-level jet streak. Given the
   focused synoptic and mesoscale ascent, this activity will likely
   continue for the next few hours, before a cold front sweeps eastward
   across the area in the 00-02Z time frame. Prior to the frontal
   passage, around 50 kt of effective shear (characterized by a
   long/mostly straight hodograph) could support a marginal supercell
   or two capable of locally damaging winds. Downward momentum transfer
   to the surface will be aided by an influx of steep low-level lapse
   rates amid 40-50 kt of flow in the lowest 1 km AGL (per ARX VWP
   data). However, limited boundary-layer moisture and related
   surface-based instability should temper the overall severe risk.

   ..Weinman/Darrow.. 03/03/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...

   LAT...LON   45059237 45469255 45989256 46509236 46799197 46879144
               46709069 46429018 45518994 44869015 44479070 44369131
               44479186 45059237