Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 226
Mesoscale Discussion 0226 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Areas affected...Eastern KS into western/northern MO and west-central IL Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 38... Valid 140730Z - 140900Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 38 continues. SUMMARY...Hail and localized severe gusts will remain possible overnight. Eventual downstream watch issuance is possible, depending on convective trends. DISCUSSION...At 0730 UTC, multiple storm clusters are ongoing from eastern KS into western/northern MO and western IL. The most vigorous ongoing cluster (based on radar and satellite trends) is located across east-central/southeast KS, where a strong mid/upper-level jet is impinging upon moderate to strong elevated buoyancy (MUCAPE of greater than 2000 J/kg). Steep midlevel lapse rates, cold temperatures aloft, and sufficient effective shear will support a hail threat with the strongest storms in this region, though a possible transition to more of a linear mode may temper hail potential to some extent. Also, despite the presence of some low-level stability, localized severe gusts will continue to be possible with this cluster, as indicated by a recent 59 mph gust near Eureka, KS. Other elevated storm clusters are ongoing in an east-west oriented band from northeast KS into northern MO. Severe gusts have recently been observed at Kirksville and Moberly, MO, and moderate elevated buoyancy will continue to support a threat of isolated hail and strong gusts as these clusters move eastward. With time, a larger QLCS could evolve and accelerate eastward, as the southeast KS cluster merges with convection and a related outflow boundary to its north and northeast. This could lead to some eventual increase in severe potential to the east of WW 38. Depending on convective trends through the overnight hours, eventual downstream watch issuance is possible. ..Dean/Edwards.. 03/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 37029674 38059585 38999535 39919480 39869245 40519191 40839137 40879059 40778998 39958989 39489059 39199115 38829190 38269301 37569423 37279490 37239536 37079593 37029674
