Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 227

   Mesoscale Discussion 0227
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0535 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

   Areas affected...Parts of central IL

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 39...40...

   Valid 141035Z - 141200Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 39, 40
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Localized strong/damaging gusts remain possible this
   morning.

   DISCUSSION...A small MCS is moving across western IL early this
   morning, with recent reports of severe gusts in McDonough County. An
   embedded mesovortex recently developed in Knox County, IL, in
   relatively close proximity to an outflow boundary and also the
   synoptic warm front. MUCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg (greater with southern
   extent) and strong deep-layer shear (as noted on the KILX VWP) will
   continue to support organized convection through the early morning.
   While the northern part of the MCS and related MCV will continue
   moving into a relatively cool/stable environment across northern IL,
   some short-term threat for localized strong/damaging gusts may
   persist, especially near/south of the warm front. Stronger updrafts
   along the leading edge of the cold pool could also pose a transient
   hail threat. Finally, a brief tornado cannot be ruled out near the
   intersection of the leading outflow and warm front, though lingering
   low-level stability may temper this threat to some extent.

   ..Dean.. 03/14/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...

   LAT...LON   41028804 40448769 39878799 39538929 39539007 39559034
               39699046 40039018 40288991 40698977 41028981 41058962
               41028804