Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 250

   Mesoscale Discussion 0250
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0956 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

   Areas affected...Far Southeast Oklahoma...Far Northeast
   Texas...Arkansas

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 45...

   Valid 150256Z - 150500Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 45 continues.

   SUMMARY...A severe threat will continue over the next few hours from
   far northeast Texas northeastward into central Arkansas.

   DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery shows a broken line of
   strong to severe storms located across east-central Arkansas, with
   scattered more discrete cells from western Arkansas southward into
   the Ark-La-Tex. New convection appears likely to develop to the
   south of the ongoing storms across south-central Arkansas late this
   evening. In addition to moderate instability, 0-6 km shear in that
   areas is estimated to be near 50 knots according to the RAP. This
   will support continued severe storm development over the next couple
   of hours. Large hail and isolated wind damage will be possible with
   supercells. A locally greater wind-damage threat will possible ahead
   of short bowing line segments. In addition, low-level shear has
   increased across the region due to a strengthening jet near 850 mb.
   For this reason, a brief tornado still may occur.

   ..Broyles.. 03/15/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...

   LAT...LON   34109560 34629522 34949432 35139326 35289229 35319168
               35139144 34839146 34439168 33679206 33059291 33079454
               33169530 33389560 33889566 34109560