Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 255

   Mesoscale Discussion 0255
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0521 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

   Areas affected...Parts of southwest TX

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 151021Z - 151215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated strong to potentially severe storms possible this
   morning. Large hail will be the primary threat.

   DISCUSSION...Convection is gradually increasing across parts of
   southwest TX this morning. This activity is possibly being aided by
   a subtle midlevel vorticity maximum moving out of northeast Mexico,
   and some increase in storm coverage and intensity will be possible
   over the next few hours. Low-level east/northeasterly flow has
   transported relatively rich low-level moisture beneath steep
   midlevel lapse rates, with MUCAPE increasing into the 1500-2000 J/kg
   range per recent objective mesoanalyses. Midlevel flow is not overly
   strong, but low-level easterlies veering to southwesterly aloft are
   supporting effective shear of greater than 40 kt, and a supercell or
   two could evolve with time this morning if storms can mature within
   the subtly forced environment. 

   Large hail (potentially in the 1.5 - 2 inch diameter range) will
   likely be the primary hazard. Coverage of the severe threat may
   remain rather isolated through the morning, but watch issuance is
   possible if multiple strong/severe storms appear imminent.

   ..Dean/Thompson.. 03/15/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   29890204 29930231 30070292 30370292 30670303 30960260
               31320166 31350041 31110006 30339936 29909944 29379986
               28900061 29310106 29840155 29890204