Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 257

   Mesoscale Discussion 0257
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0909 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

   Areas affected...central Texas/Edwards Plateau vicinity

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 52...

   Valid 151409Z - 151615Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 52
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A risk for large hail will continue into early afternoon
   across central Texas and the Edwards Plateau vicinity. Additional
   storm development is expected by midday.

   DISCUSSION...A couple of supercells over southeastern portions of
   the San Angelo forecast area have likely produced large hail this
   morning, with MRMS MESH signatures as high as 1.75 inches. This
   activity is likely elevated, spreading north of a southward sagging
   cold front across the region. Nevertheless, steep lapse rates noted
   in 12z RAOBS, combined with MUCAPE around 1000-2000 J/kg and strong
   vertical shear will support a continued hail risk as these cells
   track east/northeast. Some gradual weakening is expected with any
   cells that develop further northeast into the deeper cool air across
   Fort Worth forecast area. 

   Additional storms are expected to develop with south and east extent
   across WW 52 by midday. Heating has already allowed temperatures to
   warm into the low/mid 70s ahead of the sagging cold front. Surface
   dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F will aid in strong
   destabilization by early afternoon. Very large hail (2-3 inches in
   diameter) will be possible, along with isolated strong gusts and
   perhaps a tornado. With a 17z watch expiration time, it is possible
   a small local extension in space/time may be needed. Additional
   watch issuance is also possible later this afternoon toward the I-35
   corridor across eastern portions of WFO Austin/San Antonio into
   parts of WFO Houston. This area will be addressed in a separate MCD.

   ..Leitman/Goss.. 03/15/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   29570143 30130151 31719977 31799962 31929887 31809841
               31149803 30659799 29919859 28939960 28500054 29100098
               29570143