Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 261

   Mesoscale Discussion 0261
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0309 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

   Areas affected...portions of southern GA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 152009Z - 152145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms near a southward-sagging front may
   produce sporadic hail to near 1 inch in diameter and locally gusty
   winds through early evening. A watch is not expected at this time.

   DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms ongoing near a southward-sagging
   boundary will continue into early evening. MUCAPE around 500-1000
   J/kg amid moderate 0-6 km effective shear will support organized
   cells. Most of this activity appears somewhat elevated just to the
   cool side of the surface boundary and forcing across the area is
   expected to remain weak/unfocused. However, RAP forecast soundings
   indicate elongated/straight hodographs and modest midlevel lapse
   rates. This will continue to support sporadic instances of hail to
   near 1 inch in diameter. If any storms can develop ahead of the
   boundary or remain anchored to the front, steep low-level lapse
   rates across southern GA may support strong gusts as well. At this
   time, severe potential/storm coverage is expected to remain low and
   a watch is not expected at this time.

   ..Leitman/Goss.. 03/15/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...

   LAT...LON   32318468 32648199 32188147 31858151 31568190 31308285
               31158372 31158437 31288477 31548502 31728509 31958510
               32118503 32318468