Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 262

   Mesoscale Discussion 0262
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0354 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

   Areas affected...Portions of south-central and southeast Texas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 54...

   Valid 152054Z - 152230Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 54
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The severe-storm risk continues across Severe Thunderstorm
   Watch 54. Large to very large hail remains the primary concern.

   DISCUSSION...Supercell clusters continue to evolve/intensify between
   San Antonio and Houston TX this afternoon, generally focused along
   the outflow-modified cold front draped across the area. The
   environment remains favorable for large to very large hail
   production (possibly increasing to near 2 to 3-inch diameter) with
   these supercells, given fairly weak sub-freezing level
   shear/buoyancy and favorable instability and cloud-layer shear
   through the hail-growth zone. So far, 1.75 inch hail and wind damage
   has been reported with this activity. In addition to the large-hail
   risk, severe-gust potential should also increase owing to localized
   upscale growth into larger supercell clusters and bowing segments.
   However, the increasing storm coverage could also lead to
   destructive interference with time, especially northwest of the
   Houston area. 

   Farther west, two discrete supercells are ongoing west-northwest of
   Eagle Pass TX (across the International border). While these storms
   are largely anchored to the higher terrain, east-southeast
   right-mover and north-northeast left-mover storm motion vectors
   could allow this activity to spread across the border with time.
   Continued pre-convective heating/destabilization amid favorable
   vertical shear should support the maintenance of this activity into
   TX, with the primary risk being very large hail.

   ..Weinman.. 03/15/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX...

   LAT...LON   28560016 28540053 28840076 29190089 29580077 29860045
               29920018 29629956 29549891 29659810 30339688 30569630
               30579582 30509448 30139419 29849426 29069567 28849637
               28729742 28739804 28899871 28859942 28560016