Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 286

   Mesoscale Discussion 0286
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0227 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

   Areas affected...Parts of NY into New England

   Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation 

   Valid 230727Z - 231130Z

   SUMMARY...A mix of heavy snow, sleet, and freezing rain will
   continue to spread east-northeast from parts of southern/eastern New
   York into New England through sunrise. Heavy snow rates of 1-1.5
   in/hr will be most probable in a band along the northern periphery
   of the mixed transition zone.

   DISCUSSION...An extensive swath of mixed winter precip is ongoing
   across southern to eastern NY into parts of southern VT/NH. This has
   been aided by strong low-level warm theta-e advection amid a 50-60
   kt low-level jet per ENX/BGM VWP data. Low-level warming has again
   been faster up the Hudson Valley than indicated by evening model
   guidance with prior 1"/hr snowfall rates at ALB transitioning to
   mixed freezing rain/sleet during the past hour. Based on recent
   radar trends, this mixed phase should be the dominant precip type as
   it gradually expands east-northeast into parts of MA and southern
   VT/NH in the next few hours. Precipitation rates from 0.04-0.12
   in/hr should be expected based on upstream measurements/guidance.
   Heavier snowfall rates should still occur just to the
   north-northeast of the transition zone, with rates of 1-1.5 in/hr
   becoming increasingly probable across parts of northern VT/NH into a
   part of southwest ME through sunrise.

   ..Grams.. 03/23/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...

   LAT...LON   43177514 44237427 44687330 44847126 44877067 44687024
               44487007 44227007 43847030 43227079 42497163 42167269
               41957319 41907382 41937419 42737528 43177514