Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 296

   Mesoscale Discussion 0296
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0605 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

   Areas affected...Northwest Kansas...Southern Nebraska

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 242305Z - 250130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated severe threat will likely continue across parts
   of northwest Kansas and southern Nebraska. Isolated large hail and a
   few strong wind gusts will be possible. Weather watch issuance
   remains possible, although the severe threat is only expected to
   persist for a few more hours.

   DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a 987 mb low over far
   southwest Kansas, with an inverted surface trough extending
   north-northeastward from northwest Kansas into central Nebraska.
   Several linear-based storms are ongoing near the trough. In spite of
   surface dewpoints only in the mid to upper 40s F, the RAP has 500 to
   750 J/kg of MLCAPE. The last WSR-88D VWP at Hastings has 30-35 knots
   of 0-6 km shear, and veering of the winds with height in the lowest
   2 km. This should be enough to continue an isolated severe threat.
   Isolated large hail could occur with strongest of updrafts, along
   with a few marginally severe wind gusts. Also, a potential for a
   landspout tornado could continue along and near the eastern edge of
   the convection.

   ..Broyles/Guyer.. 03/24/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GID...DDC...GLD...

   LAT...LON   39249893 39899845 40489821 40769837 40919888 40919931
               40839961 40609986 40409998 39800040 39470051 39210036
               39099993 39079945 39249893