Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 310

   Mesoscale Discussion 0310
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0152 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

   Areas affected...parts of central Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 271852Z - 272115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...The risk for a few strong thunderstorms with potential to
   produce severe hail and locally strong surface gusts appears likely
   to increase by 4-6 PM CDT.

   DISCUSSION...Beneath cold air (including 500 mb temperatures around
   -23 to -26 C) associated with mid-level troughing shifting across
   the southern Great Plains, a deepening well-mixed boundary-layer
   continues to evolve with daytime heating across the Edwards Plateau
   into Hill Country.  Near the leading edge of the stronger
   differential surface heating, where surface dew points are still as
   high as the mid/upper 40s F, destabilization is contributing to
   deepening convective development, within moderately sheared westerly
   to west-northwesterly deep-layer mean flow.

   With additional insolation, it appears that mixed-layer CAPE may
   increase in excess of 500 J/kg.  As the sharp trailing flank of the
   mid-level cold pool begins to progress east-northeast of the Permian
   Basin, strongest instability is forecast to shift toward the I-35
   corridor of central Texas through 21-23Z, where/when initiation and
   intensification of thunderstorm activity appear increasingly
   probable, perhaps aided by ascent associated with low-level warm
   advection.

   Given the evolving thermodynamic profiles and favorable deep-layer
   shear, a few supercell structures may develop and pose a risk for
   producing severe hail and locally strong surface gusts through early
   evening, before weakening.

   ..Kerr/Hart.. 03/27/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   32339814 31519735 30239760 30089850 32119908 32339814