Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 314

   Mesoscale Discussion 0314
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0609 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024

   Areas affected...portions of southern and eastern OH into extreme
   southwest PA and northern WV

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 63...

   Valid 302309Z - 310045Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 63
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe hail remains the primary concern with ongoing
   storms across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 63, though a tornado cannot
   be ruled out. These storms should persist for at least a few more
   hours while rapidly moving southeast. Local watch extensions may be
   needed in the next few hours ahead of the more robust storms.

   DISCUSSION...Multiple discrete/semi-discrete supercells are ongoing
   across portions of central into southeastern OH, which have produced
   several instances of 1+ inch hail over the past few hours, as well
   as persistent tracks of 1+ inch MESH tracks per MRMS mosaic radar
   data. These storms are tracking along the eastern extent of a 7+
   C/km mid-level lapse rate plume, which also overspreads a surface
   thermal ridge that is contributing to a well-mixed boundary layer.
   Both 22Z mesoanalysis and some of the latest regional VADs all
   depict elongated hodographs well downstream of the ongoing storms.
   Given the steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear,
   additional instances of severe hail are expected into the evening
   hours. Since there is some appreciable low-level curvature to the
   hodographs, a tornado cannot be completely ruled out, though very
   limited low-level moisture should limit the tornado threat.

   Many of the ongoing storms have forward speeds at or above 40 kts,
   suggesting that some of these storms may reach the southern and
   eastern bounds of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 63 before severe hail
   potential diminishes. As such, WW spatial extensions may be needed
   over the next few hours pending convective trends.

   ..Squitieri.. 03/30/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...ILN...

   LAT...LON   39818296 40168134 39998044 39547972 38917981 38538034
               38548112 38798217 39028312 39198354 39318370 39818296