Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 316
Mesoscale Discussion 0316 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0913 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2023 Areas affected...Edwards Plateau into nearby Rio Grande Valley Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 240213Z - 240515Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm development appears possible through 10 PM-Midnight, some of which may pose a risk for producing large hail. It is not yet certain that a severe weather watch will be needed, but trends are being monitored for this possibility. DISCUSSION...Boundary-layer destabilization appears to be ongoing within a narrow corridor along the dryline, as the leading edge of cooling aloft begins to overtake it, east/southeast of Midland into the Rio Grande Valley to the northwest of Del Rio. One storm has already initiated and slowly intensified during the past hour or two, and additional development seems increasingly likely by 03-05Z, in response to further gradual height falls and cooling aloft associated with the approach of large-scale mid-level upstream troughing. Although forecast soundings to the south of the initial storm suggest that warm, dry layers in the lower/mid troposphere are still suppressing convection, it appears that strengthening southerly flow (to 30+ kt around 850 mb) will be accompanied by further moistening in the next few hours. Coinciding with strengthening forcing for ascent, the environment may become supportive of at least scattered intensifying thunderstorms, including supercell structures posing a risk for large hail. ..Kerr/Thompson.. 03/24/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF... LAT...LON 31190192 32840052 32389989 30870053 29620102 29550209 30580244 31190192
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