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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 316

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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 316



   Mesoscale Discussion 0316
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0913 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2023

   Areas affected...Edwards Plateau into nearby Rio Grande Valley

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 240213Z - 240515Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm development appears possible
   through 10 PM-Midnight, some of which may pose a risk for producing
   large hail.  It is not yet certain that a severe weather watch will
   be needed, but trends are being monitored for this possibility.

   DISCUSSION...Boundary-layer destabilization appears to be ongoing
   within a narrow corridor along the dryline, as the leading edge of
   cooling aloft begins to overtake it, east/southeast of Midland into
   the Rio Grande Valley to the northwest of Del Rio.  One storm has
   already initiated and slowly intensified during the past hour or
   two, and additional development seems increasingly likely by 03-05Z,
   in response to further gradual height falls and cooling aloft
   associated with the approach of large-scale mid-level upstream
   troughing.  

   Although forecast soundings to the south of the initial storm
   suggest that warm, dry layers in the lower/mid troposphere are still
   suppressing convection, it appears that strengthening southerly flow
   (to 30+ kt around 850 mb) will be accompanied by further moistening
   in the next few hours.  Coinciding with strengthening forcing for
   ascent, the environment may become supportive of at least scattered
   intensifying thunderstorms, including supercell structures posing a
   risk for large hail.

   ..Kerr/Thompson.. 03/24/2023

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   31190192 32840052 32389989 30870053 29620102 29550209
               30580244 31190192 

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