Sustainable Food Security: Balancing Desalination, Climate Change, and Population Growth in Five Arab Countries Using ARDL and VECM
1. Introduction
A complex combination of causes, including water shortages, climate change, and expanding populations, is endangering the basic foundations of life throughout the desert landscapes of the Arab world. Food security, or the capacity to guarantee enough, easily available, and nutrient-dense food for everyone, is severely hampered by this unstable state of affairs. However, desalination with renewable energy offers some hope despite this terrible situation. Using creative technology, freshwater is extracted from the enormous saltwater deposits by utilizing the wind and sun. It has the power to save millions of people from starvation, turn barren landscapes into lush fields, and ensure future generations’ access to food. The road ahead is not without difficulties, though. One of the biggest obstacles to renewable desalination is its cost, which must be overcome with assistance. The equation is further complicated by the intricate interactions between population increase, domestic food production and imports, and the constantly changing political environment.
This study explores the core of this issue by concentrating on five countries: Saudi Arabia, Morocco, Egypt, Jordan, and the United Arab Emirates, each of which has unique vulnerabilities related to food and water security. But in the middle of these difficulties, desalination using renewable energy offers a ray of hope. Given its abundant solar radiation potential and decreasing precipitation, Morocco views renewable desalination as a possible lifesaver for its food security. Egypt is at a crossroads where desalination may be a vital component. The country is burdened by a growing population and a reliance on imported wheat. One of the countries with the least amount of water on Earth, Jordan, has already started a sizable desalination campaign that is driven by renewable energy. Despite its affluence, Saudi Arabia faces a shortage of water and is making significant investments in sustainable desalination technologies. Finally, the UAE is a shining example of innovation in this sector and is a global leader in renewable energy. This study aims to shed light on the potential of renewable energy desalination as a transformative force in the Arab world’s fight for food security by examining the complex relationships between these countries’ food security, renewable energy desalination capacity, government support, climate change, population growth, water resources, and food production over the past three decades (1990–2022). This trip will examine the unique difficulties and chances that each country faces while examining the expenses, effects, and possible future directions of this vital technology. Basically, the goal of this research is to provide a basic response to the following question: Is it possible for renewable energy desalination to become a just and sustainable solution to the problems with food and water security that the Arab world is facing, opening the door to a more resilient and secure future?
In fact, our study aims to examine the connections between food security, climate change, population, water, ability of renewable energy desalination plants, cost of desalination, government support for desalination, and food importation and production in five Arabic countries: Morocco, Egypt, Jordan, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), and United Arab Emirates (UAE) between 1990 and 2022. In order to achieve this, we will use the Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag approach (ARDL) to investigate these relationships in the short- and long-run. We will also apply the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) technique to capture how the econometric model will manage its equilibrium relationships between variables in the long run, as well as the short-term dynamics of these relationships and to identify causal relationships between variables.
First, we have described the different variables and given their definitions and sources. Second, we have applied the ADF and PP tests to check the order of integration (stationarity) of each of the variables. Then, we have used the Bounds and Wald tests, respectively, to verify the existence or not of long run cointegration and the relationships among variables. In step four, we have applied the CUSUM and CUSUMSQ tests to check the stability of the economic models. In step five, we have estimated the relationships between variables in the short- and long-run by the ARDL model. In the final step, the Granger causality and VECM technique are used to capture the causality direction between variables and to show how the econometric model has its equilibrium.
In order to make our research problem and objective clearer, we have tried to summarize the main subsequent research results of the authors who tried to study the different relationships between two each of the variables that we will use in our estimations: the complex relationship between food security and water consumption, food security and climate change impacts, population growth and its influence on food security, the role of renewable energy in addressing food security challenges and the connection between renewable energy and climate change mitigation.
1.1. Food Security and Water Consumption
1.2. Food Security and Climate Change
1.3. Food Security and Population
1.4. Food Security and Renewable Energy
1.5. Renewable Energy and Climate Change
1.6. Desalinization and Environment
1.7. Food Security and Traditional and Informal Agricultural Production
2. Data, Model Specification and Methodology
2.1. Data
The principal objective of our study is to investigate the relationships between food security (FS), ability of renewable energy desalination plants (ARED), cost of renewable energy desalination (CRED), government support for renewable energy desalination (GSRED), climate change (CC), population (POP), water (W), food importation (FI) and food production (FD) in five Arabic countries: Morocco, Egypt, Jordan, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) and United Arab Emirates (UAE) during the 1990–2022period. The data has been collected from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and World Bank from the year 2023.
2.2. Model Specification
Our research article explores the effects and the types of the relationships between FS, ARED, CRED, GSRED, CC, POP, W, FI and FP in the case of five Arabic countries: Morocco, Egypt, Jordan, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) and United Arabic Emirates (UAE) between the 1990 and 2022 period. In effect, we have applied the ARDL approach and VECM technique in the first step in order to estimate the short- and long-term effects of ARED, CRED, GSRED, CC, POP, W, FI and FP on FS. The ARDL approach and VECM technique are both powerful time series econometric techniques well-suited for our research due to these reasons: The first reason is the handling of long-run and short-run dynamics. In effect, both ARDL and VECM can simultaneously estimate both the long-run and short-run relationships between variables. This is crucial in our case, as the research is interested in how factors like climate change, renewable energy desalination, and government support impact not only current food security but also its long-term trajectory. The second reason is the dealing with cointegration. The variables likely exhibit cointegration, meaning they share a long-run equilibrium relationship. ARDL can efficiently detect and handle cointegration, while VECM explicitly models it. This ensures statistically robust and meaningful results. The third reason concerns the accommodation of heterogeneous data. So, the research has a relatively long time series (1990–2022) for five different countries. Both ARDL and VECM can accommodate heterogeneous data with potential structural breaks or differences in country-specific dynamics. This allows us to capture individual country nuances while also drawing generalizable conclusions. The fourth reason to use ARDL and VECM concerns addressing potential endogeneity. In fact, some variables, like government support, might be influenced by food security concerns, creating endogeneity issues. VECM is particularly adept at handling endogeneity through techniques like lag restrictions and instrumental variables.
To summarize, each of the two techniques has specific advantages. For example, the ARDL is easier to implement and interpret for sample size (ARDL generally performs better with smaller samples), it is more flexible in handling mixed orders of integration (I(0) and I(1) variables), and it is suitable for testing specific long-run hypotheses. However, the VECM explicitly models the long-run cointegrating relationships. It is more flexible in accommodating complex dynamics among multiple variables and powerful for handling endogeneity issues.
In the second phase, we employed the VECM approach, which may be used to determine both the short-term dynamics of these connections and the equilibrium relationships between variables that the econometric model would eventually contain. It may also be applied to determine the causes of the variations. Essentially, policy modifications or outside shocks may be evaluated for their effects on the system of variables using the VECM approach. Finally, to determine the causative linkages between variables, the VECM may be utilized to conduct Granger causality tests, which were created by Engle and Granger in 1987.
where; FS indicates the dependent variable and it designates the food security (levels of food reserves held by governments or private entities). The independent variables were indicated by ARED (Ability of renewable energy desalination plants measured by cubic meters per day), CRED (Cost of renewable energy desalination, measured by American dollars per cubic meter), GSRED (Government support for renewable energy desalination, measured by desalination subsidies), CC (Climate change, measured by temperature level rise), POP (population growth rate), W (water consumption, measured by number of liters per person), FI (Food importation index) and finally, FP (food production, measured by tons of food produced per year).
where;
lnFS is the logarithm function of FS, lnARED is the logarithm function of ARED, ln CRED is the logarithm function of CRED, lnGSRED is the logarithm function of GSRED, lnCC is the logarithm function of CC, lnPOP is the logarithm function of POP, lnW is the logarithm function of W, ln FI is the logarithm function of FI and ln FP is the logarithm function of FP. β0 is the constant and ε is the term error. β1, β2, β3, β4, β5, β6, β7 and β8 are the coefficients of the independent variables.
where;
D represents the first difference operator. However, γ, δ, θ, ϑ, μ, ρ, τ, Ω and ℷ are the error correction dynamics. β9, β10, β11, β12, β13, β14, β15, β16 and β17 indicate the long-run coefficients. Finally, p and q represent the optimal lags of the ARDL model.
(no long-run relationships among variables)
(there are long-run relationships among variables)
Nevertheless, the Error Correction Term (ECT) was applied to evaluate the velocity at which dependent variables meet to their long-term stability. In effect, the ECT value must beat the same time negative and significant and negative.
3. Empirical Results
In order to analyze the impact of ARED, CRED, GSRED, CC, POP, FI and FP ontheFS variable in Morocco, Egypt, Jordan, KSA and UAE, we will recall the steps to follow in our empirical study: test of unit root (stationarity test using ADF and PP tests), test of Wald (long-run relationships), test of Bounds (long-run cointegration), short-run estimation (ARDL approach), long-run estimation (ARDL approach) and finally testing the direction of causality relationships between variables (Granger causality test).
3.1. Unit Root Tests
3.2. Wald Test
3.3. Bounds Test
3.4. Stability Test
3.5. Short-Run ARDL Estimations
Starting with the FS variable, it appears that in the short-run, the FS variable at period (t), at period (t−1), at periods (t and t−1) and at period (t) affect positively the actual values of FS respectively in Morocco, Jordan, KSA and UAE. These positive effects can be explained by the good food security index which gives a feeling of security among individuals and governments that there is a surplus in food stocks which will stabilize or even reduce prices and subsequently keep amounts that will be spent on future purchases of food products. However, the actual FS of Morocco, Egypt and Jordan were negatively affected by respectively the FS at periods (t−1 and t−2), the FS at periods (t and t−1) and the FS at period (t). Due to the creation of vulnerabilities that last into the present, poor food security in the previous year might have a detrimental effect on real food security. In other words, households that have experienced food insecurity in the previous year could have to sell valuable possessions or spend all of their money in order to cover their basic food needs. Households may have had to take on debt in order to satisfy their food demands in the previous year, which makes it more difficult for them to purchase food now and in the future. Also, the malnutrition and health issues might result from food insecurity in the previous year, which can lower people’s productivity and make it more difficult for them to get food in the present.
The results show that an increase of one unit of the ARED variable results in an increase in the FS variable of 0.008 units in Morocco, 0.230 units in Egypt, 1.065 units in Jordan, 0.019 units in KSA and 1.113 units in UAE.
The CRED variable leads toa strong decrease of the FS in Morocco, Egypt and Jordan respectively by −2.092, −1.927 and −6.094 units, nevertheless it slightly decreases the FS in KSA and UAE respectively by −0.007 and −0.002 units.
The GSRED and CC variables decrease the FS of all countries except UAE. However, the POP variable increases the FS of all countries except Egypt.
It appears that the W variable represents a real problem in the short-run for FS in Morocco and Jordan. In effect, the per capita share of water negatively affects Moroccan and Jordanian food security in equal proportion respectively at 1.962 units and 2.755 units in the short-run.
In the short-term, the results show that all of our five countries, especially Egypt, depend on the outside world to secure its food security, and this is shown by the positive impact of the food importation on FS.
Finally, we have found that local food production or agricultural production is insufficient to achieve food security in Jordan, Saudi Arabia and in UAE. However, FP has an important role to attain food security in Morocco and in Egypt.
3.6. Long-Run ARDL Estimations
3.7. Granger Causality Relationships and ECT Test
Nevertheless, the results of the ECT test confirm the presence of long-run relationships between variables. Every variable has at the same time a negative and significative coefficient of ECT, meaning that this variable has a bidirectional relationship in the long-run and it is considered as an adjustment component previously, causing the econometric model to deviate from the equilibrium.
The results of ECT show that in the long-run, there are three long-run bidirectional causality relationships between the ARED, CC and W variables in Morocco and Jordan, and these variables cause the rest of the variables. In Egypt, there are long-run bidirectional causality relationships between POP, W and FI, and there are unidirectional causality relationships running from these three variables to the rest of the variables. Also, there are three bidirectional causality relationships in the long-run in KSA among ARED, GSRED and FI, and these variables cause the rest of the variables. However, in UAE there are two bidirectional causality relationships among ARED and FI. In effect, ARED and FI cause the rest of the variables in the long-term.
4. Conclusions
The complex network of variables influencing food security in five Arab countries, Morocco, Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, has been examined in this research. Equipped with advanced econometric instruments, we discovered insights into the intricate relationship between desalination of renewable energy, climate change, water shortage, population increase, and domestic food production through the use of the ARDL method and VECM technique. Desalination with renewable energy offers some optimism even if the picture shows several obstacles. The initial phase denotes the various variables and provides sources and definitions for each. Secondly, the order of integration of each variable has been verified by the use of the ADF and PP tests. Next, we performed the Wald and Bounds tests, respectively, to confirm the correlations between the variables and the presence or absence of long-run cointegration. The CUSUM and CUSUMSQ tests were used in step four to verify the stability of the economic models. In the fifth phase, we used the ARDL model to estimate the short- and long-term associations between the variables. The econometric model’s equilibrium is demonstrated in the last stage by capturing the causation direction between variables using the Granger causality and VECM approach.
Our research shows how much promise this technology has to improve food security, but its success depends on a number of significant obstacles being removed. Cost reduction through government assistance and technology breakthroughs becomes a top priority, especially in Morocco, Egypt, and Jordan. Strategies for adapting to climate change must be prioritized, taking into account both its unknown benefits and hazards to places like the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. It is imperative that water scarcity be addressed via creative and sustainable resource management, particularly for Jordan, the country with the worst water shortage. The causal links that have been found highlight the necessity of integrated policy approaches that take into account how various elements are interrelated. It is crucial to customize solutions to the unique vulnerabilities and dynamics of every country. Morocco may give priority to affordable renewable desalination in addition to other options in order to alleviate its water issues. Egypt’s expanding population needs a multifaceted strategy that strikes a balance between domestic food production, imports, and reasonably priced desalination. Jordan has to make immediate investments in renewable desalination technology in addition to water conservation measures because of its limited water supplies. Despite its affluence, Saudi Arabia must acknowledge the problem of water shortage and should use its influence to support environmentally friendly desalination technology. Ultimately, by sharing its knowledge and encouraging regional cooperation, the UAE, a shining example of innovation, can firmly establish its leadership position.
The paper makes some really good observations that, by going deeper into two important areas, might boost the research. The first is desalination innovation. The research essentially touches on the promise of desalination using renewable energy, but a closer look at certain advancements would confirm the technology’s potential for cost savings. Investigating developments such as next-generation membranes, which can generate water of greater quality while using less energy, can result in more effective and selective membranes. the cost-effectiveness and regional suitability of emerging desalination technologies, such as forward osmosis, electrodialysis, and solar desalination. Finally, the discussion of developments in using solar, wind, and other renewable energy sources to power desalination plants thereby guaranteeing sustainability and grid independence can be facilitated by integration with renewable energy sources. Regional collaboration is the subject of the second point. The potential for cooperative efforts among the five Arab countries is really highlighted by the interconnection of the elements that have been identified. It could investigate options like pooling information and best practices to create knowledge-sharing platforms and collaborative research projects to boost creativity and improve resource management. In order to address water scarcity, it is crucial to develop regional water management strategies through cooperative efforts on infrastructure projects such as shared desalination plants or water pipelines. Additionally, it is important to lobby for changes in policy and standardized regulations to encourage investment in sustainable desalination technologies on a global scale.
There is no one magic solution, as this exploration of the nuances of food security in the Arab world makes clear. Rather, a diverse strategy is needed to ensure a sustainable and secure future. Crucial pillars include embracing renewable energy desalination while scrupulously resolving financial obstacles, adjusting to climate change, appropriately managing water resources, and promoting sustainable farming techniques. Policymakers can turn the barren landscapes of the Arab world into a thriving oasis of food security for future generations by recognizing the complex linkages between these elements and adjusting responses to the unique difficulties and possibilities of each country.
5. Policy Implementations
A comprehensive policy response is necessary in light of the complex riddle that is food security in five Arab nations, as revealed by this research. Desalination with renewable energy has potential, but its viability depends on lowering costs. Thus, it is imperative to fund research and development for economically viable desalination technology, especially in Morocco, Egypt, and Jordan. In addition, for this technology to be widely available and reasonably priced, government assistance for desalination infrastructure and renewable energy sources is crucial. Threats and possibilities are both brought about by climate change. Proactive adaptation measures are therefore essential, especially in susceptible areas like Morocco, Egypt, and Jordan. For improved water security, nations with more rainfall, such as the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, should investigate the potential benefits of combining desalination with climate change adaptation. Since the region’s food security is being strained by rapid population expansion, family planning programs, investments in economic possibilities and education, and economic growth may all help control population growth and empower individuals. In addition, it is critical to support sustainable farming methods that maximize water use and boost yields, especially in Jordan where water is scarce. The necessity for coordinated policy approaches is highlighted by the found causal linkages. Coordination of desalination, water resource management, and climate change adaptation is essential in Morocco and Jordan. It is crucial to concentrate on population control, water conservation, and food source diversification in Egypt. Policies that strike a balance between local agricultural output, food imports, and desalination within a sustainable framework are necessary for the UAE and KSA. Policymakers can unleash the promise of renewable energy desalination, handle water scarcity, control population expansion, and promote sustainable agriculture practices by customizing solutions to the unique dynamics of each nation and creating regional collaboration. This will set the Arab world up for a resilient and safe food future.
6. Avenues for Future Research
Although the intricate interactions between food security, climate, population, water, and renewable energy desalination in five Arab nations have been clarified by this research, a number of important problems still need to be addressed. Subsequent investigations may explore these complexities in greater detail, opening the door for more sophisticated and successful policy measures. First, evaluating the long-term effects of desalination on society and the environment. Although the emphasis of our analysis was the economic impact, further research is required to understand the wider social and environmental ramifications of large-scale desalination plants. This should include details assessing possible effects on brine disposal, coastal ecosystems, and the fair allocation of water resources. Examining the possibilities of alternate water sources is the second step. Other creative approaches to water management, in addition to desalination, should be investigated further. This might entail looking at wastewater treatment systems that are suited to the unique requirements of each area, as well as rainfall collection and gray water reuse. Third, creating reliable models to forecast the effects of various climate change scenarios on food security and the efficacy of desalination techniques should be the main goal of future research. Our study only offered a picture of the current situation. Proactive adaptation strategies and long-term resource allocation can benefit from this. Finally, examining the function of government and social factors: Food security is closely related to social justice, political stability, and cultural norms; it is not only a technological issue. Subsequent investigations ought to explore the ways in which social elements such as land ownership, gendered resource accessibility, and governance frameworks impact the effectiveness of food security measures, such as desalination initiatives. We can better grasp the potential and complicated difficulties related to food security in the Arab world by exploring these study topics. With a changing climate and an aging population, this understanding will be crucial for developing policies that will protect the region’s sustainability.