Vital Signs: Changes in Firearm Homicide…

Discussion

The firearm homicide rate in 2020 was the highest recorded since 1994 (1). However, the increase in firearm homicides was not equally distributed. Young persons, males, and Black persons consistently have the highest firearm homicide rates, and these groups experienced the largest increases in 2020. These increases represent the widening of long-standing disparities in firearm homicide rates. For example, the firearm homicide rate among Black males aged 10–24 years was 20.6 times as high as the rate among White males of the same age in 2019, and this ratio increased to 21.6 in 2020. Although the overall firearm suicide rate remained relatively unchanged between 2019 and 2020, young persons and some racial/ethnic minority groups experienced increases in firearm suicide. Notably, the largest increase occurred among AI/AN persons, resulting in this group having the highest firearm suicide rate as of 2020. Racial and ethnic minority groups are more likely to live in communities with high surrounding poverty, and firearm homicide and suicide were also associated with poverty. Counties with the smallest proportion of the population living below the poverty line experienced a 22% increase in firearm homicides, whereas all other counties experienced an increase of ≥40%. In 2020, counties with the highest poverty level had firearm homicide and firearm suicide rates that were 4.5 and 1.3 times as high, respectively, as counties with the lowest poverty level.

The findings of this study do not support causal inferences, and reasons for increasing rates and widening inequities are unclear and potentially complex. Several explanations have been proposed, including increased stressors (e.g., economic, social, and psychological) and disruptions in health, social, and emergency services during the COVID-19 pandemic; strains in law enforcement-community relations reflected in protests over law enforcement use of lethal force; increases in firearm purchases; and intimate partner violence (7–10). The COVID-19 pandemic might have exacerbated existing social and economic stressors that increase risk for homicide and suicide, particularly among certain racial and ethnic communities (2). Longstanding systemic inequities and structural racism (11) have resulted in limited economic, housing, and educational opportunities associated with inequities in risk for violence and other health conditions among various racial and ethnic groups.

The findings of this study underscore the importance of comprehensive strategies that can stop violence now and in the future by addressing factors that contribute to homicide and suicide, including the underlying economic, physical, and social inequities that drive racial and ethnic disparities in multiple health outcomes. For example, policies that enhance economic and household stability (e.g., temporary assistance to families, child care subsidies, tax credits, housing assistance, and livable wages) can reduce family poverty and other risk factors for homicide and suicide (e.g., family stress and substance use) (3,4,12–14). Communities can also implement locally driven approaches that address physical and social environments that contribute to violence and other inequities, with the potential for immediate benefits. Approaches such as enhancing and maintaining green spaces and the remediation of vacant buildings can reduce opportunities for violence and promote positive social interactions. These approaches have been associated with significant reductions in risk for firearm violence (13,15). For example, a study in a major U.S. city found that restoration of vacant lots (e.g., cleaning up debris or adding vegetation) was associated with significant reductions in firearm assaults, with the largest reduction (29%) in areas with the highest poverty (15).

In addition to addressing known drivers of inequities and disparities, it is important for prevention strategies to focus on populations experiencing the highest risks for and rates of violence (4,13). For example, the comprehensive White Mountain Apache Suicide Surveillance and Prevention System was associated with reduced Apache suicides and attempts (16). Community and street outreach programs, like Cure Violence, have shown promising results for multiple outcomes, including firearm violence, by connecting populations at highest risk for violence with community services while reducing tensions and retaliatory actions (4,13). Hospital-based programs that intervene with victims of violence can have lasting effects on risk for revictimization and perpetration (17), and those that intervene with patients at risk for suicide can prevent reattempts (3,18). Other individual and family therapeutic approaches can lessen harm from exposure to violence and prevent continuation of violence (e.g., Trauma Focused Cognitive Behavior Therapy and Multisystemic Therapy) (4). Moreover, many violence prevention programs, such as those that teach coping and problem-solving skills, enhance norms against intimate partner and other violence, prevent substance use and suicide attempts, encourage help-seeking, or provide mentoring and employment opportunities can be implemented more broadly, irrespective of risk (3,4,13).

Approaches that focus on enhancing firearm safety and storage, particularly to protect persons at risk from harming themselves or others, are part of a comprehensive prevention strategy. For example, research suggests that physician counseling paired with provision of a safety device is associated with safer firearm storage practices in the home (19). A recent review also concluded that child access prevention laws have been associated with lower rates of youth firearm self-injury, including suicide, and laws preventing firearm ownership by those under domestic violence restraining orders are associated with reductions in intimate partner homicides (20). It is important to examine the circumstances and mechanisms (e.g., implementation processes and changes in knowledge or norms) that facilitate the most effective firearm safety approaches (20). There is substantial need for additional research to expand the evidence base for programs, policies, and practices that effectively reduce firearm injuries and deaths, and that address inequities in risk for violence and suicide.

The findings in this report are subject to at least four limitations. First, the urbanization and poverty measures are county-wide indicators and thus not specific to any demographic subpopulations. Second, statistically stable rate estimates for certain demographic cross-classifications could not be reported because of small counts. Third, rate estimates by race and ethnicity could reflect underreporting of deaths in the vital statistics data, particularly for AI/AN persons. Finally, the study could not determine why observed increases occurred or whether they are attributable to the COVID-19 pandemic or other causes. Preliminary data for 2021 indicate that firearm homicide incidence during the first half of 2021 was higher than that during the same period in 2020, suggesting that the elevated rate might have persisted; however, further analysis is required (1).

The increases in firearm homicide rates and persistently high firearm suicide rates in 2020, with increases among populations that were already at high risk, have widened disparities and heightened the urgency of actions that can have immediate and lasting benefits. State and local governments, community partners, and health care and other service providers can use the best available evidence to implement comprehensive approaches to prevent homicide and suicide, including addressing physical, social, and structural conditions that contribute to violence and disparities.