Effect of Environmental and Socioeconomic Factors on Increased Early Childhood Blood Lead Levels: A Case Study in Chicago
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1. Introduction
2. Data
2.1. Blood Lead Levels (BLLs) and Lead Poisoning (LP) Data
2.2. Socioeconomic Data
2.3. Land Surface Temperature Data
An inherent limitation of satellite-measured LST products is their inability to capture surface temperatures under cloudy conditions. To address this limitation, we refined our dataset by exclusively selecting observations recorded during hours with less than 10% cloud cover within our study area. This selection criterion ensures that we utilized a subset of data that can be reliably considered cloud-free. As a result of this filtering process, we obtained 7724 h of usable LST data from 2019 to 2021, constituting approximately 30% of the total available temperature data. This subset is adequate for our analysis as our primary interest lies in examining the relative temperature differences across zip codes rather than the absolute magnitude of LST.
As a secondary step in our analysis, we calculated the LST anomaly for each of the 7724 time steps. For each grid point within the 2 km resolution data, we subtracted the mean LST of the entire study area at the corresponding time step to determine relative temperature differences. This calculation produced 7724 spatial anomaly maps.
2.4. Interrelationships among Predictors
3. Method of Analysis
In our approach, a spline function is fitted for each predictor variable, utilizing a basis of 12 cubic splines. This configuration allows the GAM to produce a smooth curve that accurately reflects the relationship between each predictor and the dependent variable. Opting for 12 cubic splines grants the model ample flexibility to capture complex, non-linear patterns effectively. To enhance the fidelity and generalization ability of these spline functions, smoothing parameter (λ) values are meticulously adjusted for each predictor. These λ values play a pivotal role in modulating the smoothness of the spline functions. To determine the optimal λ values, we employed a grid search algorithm by testing a spectrum of λ values to pinpoint the one that minimizes the root mean squared error (RMSE) of the model’s predictions, thereby ensuring a precise and reliable prediction of LP rate.
4. Results
4.1. Wilcoxon Signed-Rank Test for Individual Predictors
4.2. LP Rate Modelling with GAM
The analysis of daytime and nighttime LST reveals detailed differences in their relationships with LP. While both temperatures correlate positively with LP, the influence of daytime LST plateaus after a 1 °C anomaly, suggesting a threshold effect. Conversely, nighttime LST demonstrates a steady positive relationship with LP, with higher confidence levels than its daytime counterpart. This distinction may be attributed to the better representation of urban fabric by nighttime LST, which captures the retained heat within built environments more effectively than daytime LST.
4.3. Racial Inequality
Until this point, the analysis has concentrated on per capita income, unemployment rate, building age, and LST, without integrating racial demographics for each block. This approach is because, within the Chicagoland context, racial demographics exhibit a high correlation with the aforementioned socioeconomic and environmental metrics, suggesting that including racial data directly does not significantly enhance the predictive capability of our model. Nonetheless, the GAM framework allows for an exploration of how LP rates may be differentially influenced by socioeconomic status across various racial groups within zip codes.
To investigate the influence of socioeconomic factors on LP rates within different racial groups, we initially identified zip codes predominantly inhabited by specific racial demographics—White, Black, and Hispanic/Latino (HisLat)—based on the criterion that the majority population (over 50%) of the zip code belongs to one of these racial categories according to the Census data. Subsequently, we compiled the values of each predictor variable (per capita income, unemployment rate, education rate, building age, daytime LST, and nighttime LST) for the zip codes categorized by these racial demographics.
The underlying factors contributing to this disparity differ between the two groups. For the HisLat population, the majority of the increased LP rate is attributable to building age, which accounts for 82% of the HisLat-specific increase and 1.23% absolute increase in LP rate. In contrast, for the Black population, the increased LP rate is largely due to both the unemployment rate—contributing to 50% of the Black-specific increase and a 0.73% increase in LP rate—and building age, which accounts for 40% of the increase and a 0.58% absolute rise in LP rate.
While our modelling-based analysis identifies socioeconomic factors and building age as key contributors to LP rate disparities, it is essential to recognize these factors within a broader historical and social context. Historical housing policies, particularly redlining, have ingrained systemic racial discrimination into urban landscapes, influencing residential patterns and health outcomes to this day. These policies have not only marginalized certain communities through economic constraints but have also exposed them to greater environmental risks, including deteriorated housing and proximity to pollutants.
5. Summary and Conclusions
In this study, we investigated the percentage of children with blood lead levels (BLLs) exceeding 5 µg/dL across zip codes in the Chicagoland area from 2019 to 2021, examining the association with socioeconomic and environmental factors and the broader context of racial inequality.
Moreover, our study analyzes the relationship between satellite-based measurements of land surface temperature (LST) variations during daytime and nighttime and their impact on LP rate, a previously unexplored area. We hypothesize that higher LSTs may contribute to increased LP rates by enhancing the solubility of lead in antiquated plumbing systems, thus elevating the potential for lead to leach into the drinking water supply within communities living within an older infrastructure. Our findings indicate that both daytime and nighttime LST are associated with increased LP, with a more marked effect observed for nighttime LST. The heightened impact of nighttime LST likely stems from its effectiveness as an indicator of the urban heat island effect, which captures the thermal retention properties of urban structures and surfaces. Nighttime LST is particularly indicative of the heat generated and retained by built environments, which can have various indirect effects on LP. For instance, higher nighttime LST may be reflective of less vegetated areas or denser building materials, both of which are factors that can indirectly contribute to elevated LP rate. This aspect of the study not only extends the understanding of environmental influences on LP rates but also underscores the potential of satellite-derived LST data as a valuable tool in public health research.
Lastly, our investigation addresses racial disparities in LP rates. We find that Black and Hispanic/Latino communities are at risk from an elevated LP rate. The factors contributing to this increased exposure differ somewhat between groups. For the Black population, the heightened risk is primarily due to the high unemployment rates and the prevalence of older housing. In contrast, for Hispanic/Latino communities, the risk is predominantly associated with the presence of older housing stock. This analysis underscores a critical public health challenge: socioeconomically disadvantaged communities, particularly Black and Hispanic/Latino populations, are disproportionately affected by LP. The compounded issue of higher LP rates and limited access to mitigating resources highlights the need for dedicated public health initiatives. There is evident demand for targeted interventions and supportive measures that are tailored to address the distinct challenges faced by these vulnerable groups. Such initiatives are essential not only to alleviate the immediate burden of LP but also to foster long-term health and wellbeing within these communities. Also, the observed higher rates LP within minority populations merit attention, particularly considering how stressors associated with poverty, racism, and stereotype threats prevalent among these groups could influence the body’s biotransformation processes. Such factors might contribute to the disparities in LP rates observed across different demographic groups.
This study is notable for several reasons. Firstly, it utilizes recent data from 2019 to 2021, providing a contemporary analysis of the factors contributing to LP. Secondly, it extends beyond the urban center to encompass the wider Chicagoland area, offering insights into a broader demographic. Thirdly, satellite-based measurements of LST are employed, highlighting the value of remotely sensed environmental data in public health research and further highlighting the possible increase in LP in a warming world. Fourthly, advanced statistical modeling through GAM is applied to understand the non-linear effects of socioeconomic and environmental variables on LP rates. Lastly, the study addresses racial disparities by examining how socioeconomic conditions correlated with race indirectly affect LP rates, providing an informed perspective on this complex issue.
6. Limitation and Future Direction
It is important to acknowledge that while our regression model did not reveal a significant correlation between LP and educational factors, this could be due to the high correlation between education levels and other variables, such as income and unemployment rates, which have demonstrated strong associations with LP. Additionally, the lack of observed significance may be attributed to the spatial and temporal scales considered in this study.
Furthermore, the dataset covers a relatively short period of just three years. With a more extended dataset, it would be possible to examine the general trends or zip-code-specific trends in LP rates over time, assessing not just the disparities between zip codes but also how they evolve. Additionally, other environmental factors, such as wind speed or humidity, could potentially enhance the analysis. However, obtaining these variables at a high spatial resolution is challenging, as they are not readily measurable via satellite technologies.
Author Contributions
Conceptualization, J.L. and M.H.; data curation, J.L. and M.H.; formal analysis, J.L. and M.H.; funding acquisition, J.L.; investigation, J.L. and M.H.; methodology, J.L. and M.H.; resources, J.L. and M.H.; validation, J.L.; visualization, J.L.; writing—original draft, J.L., writing—review and editing, J.L. and M.H. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.
Funding
This material is based upon work supported by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of Biological and Environmental Research’s Urban Integrated Field Laboratories CROCUS project research activity, under Award Number DE-SC0023226.
Institutional Review Board Statement
Not applicable.
Informed Consent Statement
Not applicable.
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
The authors declare no conflicts of interest.
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Figure 1.
Map of percentage of children with over 5 µg/dL of BLLs (LP) in Chicago area for 2019–2021 period, aggregated at the zip code level.
Figure 1.
Map of percentage of children with over 5 µg/dL of BLLs (LP) in Chicago area for 2019–2021 period, aggregated at the zip code level.
Figure 2.
Zip-code-level map of socioeconomic variables and land surface temperature metrics. (a) Average per capita income (income), (b) unemployment rate (unemployment), (c) percentage of population with a high school diploma (education), (d) years after the building was built (building age), (e) average daytime (10:00~15:00) LST anomaly for summertime (June, July, and August) from 2018 to 2021, and (f) average nighttime (00:00~05:00) LST anomaly for summertime from 2018 to 2021.
Figure 2.
Zip-code-level map of socioeconomic variables and land surface temperature metrics. (a) Average per capita income (income), (b) unemployment rate (unemployment), (c) percentage of population with a high school diploma (education), (d) years after the building was built (building age), (e) average daytime (10:00~15:00) LST anomaly for summertime (June, July, and August) from 2018 to 2021, and (f) average nighttime (00:00~05:00) LST anomaly for summertime from 2018 to 2021.
Figure 3.
Heatmap displaying the cross-correlation matrix of predictor variables with correlation coefficients.
Figure 3.
Heatmap displaying the cross-correlation matrix of predictor variables with correlation coefficients.
Figure 4.
Comparative distribution of predictor variables between Q1 (left) and Q4 (right) LP rate percentile groups. The variables include (a) per capita income, (b) unemployment rate, (c) education rate, (d) building age, (e) daytime LST, and (f) nighttime LST. Within each box plot, the median values are indicated by red lines, while the boxes represent the interquartile range (IQR), spanning from the 25th to the 75th percentile. The whiskers extend to 1.5 times the IQR.
Figure 4.
Comparative distribution of predictor variables between Q1 (left) and Q4 (right) LP rate percentile groups. The variables include (a) per capita income, (b) unemployment rate, (c) education rate, (d) building age, (e) daytime LST, and (f) nighttime LST. Within each box plot, the median values are indicated by red lines, while the boxes represent the interquartile range (IQR), spanning from the 25th to the 75th percentile. The whiskers extend to 1.5 times the IQR.
Figure 5.
Partial dependence of each predictor variable, derived from GAM regression. The variables include (a) per capita income, (b) unemployment rate, (c) education rate, (d) building age, (e) daytime LST, and (f) nighttime LST. The black line represents the estimated partial dependence, while the gray shaded area shows the 90% confidence interval of the dependence. Blue, orange, and green dots represent the median values for each racial group, while the corresponding error bars denote the 5–95th percentile interval of predictor variables, for each racial group.
Figure 5.
Partial dependence of each predictor variable, derived from GAM regression. The variables include (a) per capita income, (b) unemployment rate, (c) education rate, (d) building age, (e) daytime LST, and (f) nighttime LST. The black line represents the estimated partial dependence, while the gray shaded area shows the 90% confidence interval of the dependence. Blue, orange, and green dots represent the median values for each racial group, while the corresponding error bars denote the 5–95th percentile interval of predictor variables, for each racial group.
Figure 6.
Bar graph showing the relative change in LP rates for Black and Hispanic/Latino (HisLat) populations in comparison to the White population. Each bar is segmented to demonstrate the contribution of different predictor variables: per capita income (blue), unemployment rate (orange), building age (green), daytime LST (purple), and nighttime LST (red).
Figure 6.
Bar graph showing the relative change in LP rates for Black and Hispanic/Latino (HisLat) populations in comparison to the White population. Each bar is segmented to demonstrate the contribution of different predictor variables: per capita income (blue), unemployment rate (orange), building age (green), daytime LST (purple), and nighttime LST (red).
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