Pilip, Suozzi vie for ex-Rep. George Santos’ NY seat as early voting starts

Early voting started Saturday in the heated congressional special election to pick a successor to disgraced ex-Rep. George Santos for a Long Island swing seat that could further reduce the already razor-thin GOP majority in the House of Representatives.

Democratic ex-Rep. Tom Suozzi is battling upstart Republican Mazi Melesa Pilip in an unusual mid-winter contest in which the winner will head to Washington, D.C., to serve out the remainder of what was supposed to be a two-year term for Santos, the controversial conservative Republican who was expelled by the House in December over allegations of fraud, theft and campaign finance violations.

The winner will also almost certainly run again for a full term in party primaries and the November general election, while the loser may or may not take a second shot at representing the purple district spanning the North Shore and a slice of far northeast Queens.

The fall election will also likely take place under different district lines as Democrats were given the green light to potentially redraw all the state’s congressional districts ahead of the 2024 race.

As with most special elections, it’s expected to be a low turnout affair although Suozzi and Democrats are spending freely on ads in a sign they don’t want to squander a key opportunity to flip a formerly GOP-held seat.

Besides delivering a verdict on the parties’ standing on Long Island, which has trended to the right in the past couple of election cycles, the bellwether contest could also offer some clues about the fall election for Congress and even the White House.

Here are five things to know about the race.

When and where to vote

Polls opened Saturday for early voting, which runs through Feb. 11. Registered voters can cast their ballots during business hours at several sites across Nassau County and a small portion of Queens.

Check for your polling site in Queens or in Nassau.

Election Day is Feb. 13, when polls will be open across the district from 6 a.m. till 9 p.m. Results are expected later that night.

Who are Suozzi and Pilip?

Tom Suozzi is a self-styled moderate Democrat who represented most of the NY-03 district for three terms before leaving Congress to mount a doomed bid for governor, a move that opened the door to Santos’ 2022 upset win.

He is very well-known in the district and won a reputation for working across the aisle and occasionally giving headaches to Democratic leaders and liberal voters by not toeing the party line.

Mazi Melesa Pilip is a political newcomer and a rising Republican star who won two straight terms representing a Democratic-leaning district in the Nassau County Legislature.

An immigrant from Israel with roots in Ethiopia, Pilip admits being a registered Democrat but says she has come to side with the GOP since getting involved in public affairs.

What are the big issues?

The southern U.S. border and the influx of migrants into New York stands out as perhaps the most contentious issue in the race.

Pilip has taken an orthodox Republican approach of seeking to lump Suozzi with what she calls President Biden’s “failed border policies.”

The Democrat has mounted a surprisingly aggressive pushback on the issue, seeking to tie Pilip to former President Trump and his Republican congressional allies who have sought to derail a bipartisan border security compromise making its way through the Senate.

Pilip has sought to avoid being pinned down on Trump, although she did call him a “great president” and said she would likely vote for him in November.

Abortion has also been a lightning-rod issue with Suozzi seeking to portray Pilip as a dangerous enemy of women’s right to choose especially after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade.

The mother of seven says she’s pro-life but does not support a national ban on abortion, without elaborating on exactly what that means.

What could we learn about the national state of play?

The fight for even one seat in Congress looms especially large because Republicans hold just a six-vote majority in the House of Representatives, an edge that would be reduced to five if Suozzi can pull off a win.

Beyond the math, the race could give both parties and voters important clues about the political climate as the nation warily approaches a likely Titanic rematch between Trump and Biden, with control of both congressional chambers up for grabs.

For Democrats, the road to retake the House runs straight through the New York suburbs. A win in NY-03 would put the political wind at their backs as they seek to flip five seats that Republicans grabbed in a midterms mini-wave.

It could also offer a road map for the issues and strategies that could work in a handful of swing districts nationwide.

Republicans will be seeking to flex their reborn political muscle on Long Island, where the GOP has pulled off an impressive string of victories since Biden came to office.

A GOP win over the well-known Suozzi could suggest that the Democratic brand is in trouble in some suburban districts after trending blue during the Trump era.

Where’s George?

The disgraced ex-lawmaker has kept a surprisingly low profile, especially considering his attention-grabbing ways during his brief stint in Congress.

The mercurial accused con man says he has no plans to vote in the special election and has mostly stayed out of sight during the campaign so far, much to the relief or Republicans who hope voters forget he was their standard bearer.

In a sign he might not be 100% done with politics, Santos did pop up at Trump’s victory rally after his win in the New Hampshire primary.

Santos has plenty of other problems on his plate: He’s awaiting trial on federal criminal charges, although prosecutors say they are trying to work out a plea deal.