Research Themes, Evolution Trends, and Future Challenges in China’s Carbon Emission Studies

3.1.1. Analysis of Publication Volume

Phase One (2003–2009) marked the initial stage of research and policy formulation. The number of published papers increased from 3 to 11. During this phase, there were relatively few research outcomes on carbon emissions in China, reflecting a lower level of government attention to the issue, and CE control policies had yet to be implemented. Phase Two (2010–2014) witnessed incremental growth and policy deepening. The number of published papers increased from 50 to 202. CE research in China gradually increased, accompanied by the progressive implementation of government policies addressing carbon emissions. Initiatives such as evaluating carbon emissions per unit of GDP, advancing low-carbon cities, and piloting carbon markets were introduced during this period. Phase Three (2015–2019) was characterized by rapid growth and global attention. The number of published papers increased from 257 to 1751. The Chinese government committed to achieving a carbon peak by 2030, prompting Chinese scholars to actively explore carbon reduction strategies, leading to a sharp increase in research outcomes. Phase Four (2020–2023) represents continuous growth and a pursuit of carbon neutrality. The number of published papers has remained stable at around 2000. With the Chinese government setting the goal of carbon neutrality by 2060, research outcomes by Chinese scholars in the field of carbon emissions continue to escalate.

In summary, CE research in China has made significant strides over the past two decades. China has emerged as a key participant in the global field of CE research, providing crucial support in addressing climate change challenges.

3.1.2. Analysis of Journal Level

Utilizing the Journal Citation Reports (JCR) tool, we analyzed the impact factors of papers authored by Chinese scholars on carbon emissions. JCR employs statistical computations based on citation data among journals, categorizing them into different quartiles (Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4) according to their citation performance. A higher impact factor indicates increased citation rates for the articles within, signifying the influence of the research outcomes reported, and also underscores the elevated scholarly standing of the respective journal.

Among the 12,721 carbon emission-related papers published by Chinese scholars, contributions to Q1, Q2, Q3, and Q4 journals amounted to 4501, 2936, 4555, and 729, respectively. Notably, articles featured in Q1 journals constitute 35% of the total sample. The top-ranking Q1 journals include the Journal of Cleaner Production, Applied Energy, and Energy, highlighting the substantial quality and impact of Chinese scholars’ research achievements in the field of carbon emissions. This underscores their significant contributions to advancing the domain of carbon emissions.

3.1.3. Analysis of Keywords

The keyword co-occurrence network comprises 674 nodes interconnected by 2424 links. Noteworthy keywords such as “carbon emissions”, “carbon peaking”, “energy consumption”, “intensity”, and “dynamics” are associated with research on CE computation and prediction. Keywords including “economic growth”, “impact”, “policy”, “urbanization”, “international trade”, “decomposition analysis”, foreign direct investment”, “innovation”, “driving forces”, and “industrial structure” are linked to studies on the influencing factors of carbon emissions. Keywords like “carbon footprint” and “supply chain” are intertwined with research on carbon footprints. Meanwhile, keywords such as “efficiency”, “energy efficiency”, and “environmental efficiency “ are tied to studies on CEE. Lastly, keywords including “China”, “industry”, “regional differences”, “sector”, “country”, and “city” are associated with research on the differential analysis of carbon emissions.

In summary, through a keyword analysis of the research outcomes by Chinese scholars on carbon emissions, this paper categorizes the research themes into the following five points: CE computation and prediction, influencing factors of carbon emissions, carbon footprint, CEE, and differential analysis of carbon emissions.

As depicted in the keyword timeline graph, research on carbon emissions in China commenced with the calculation of carbon emissions, and the study of factors influencing carbon emissions has been a continuous thread throughout. In the interim, topics such as carbon footprint, CEE, CE prediction, and differential analysis gradually evolved into focal research points.

Firstly, from 2003 to 2007, Chinese scholars conducted a significant amount of CE estimation research to comprehend the current state of carbon emissions. Key terms included “carbon emissions”, “energy consumption”, “intensity”, and others. Secondly, in pursuit of establishing carbon reduction pathways, Chinese scholars persisted in researching the factors influencing carbon emissions. This evolved from early research (2006–2010) focused on economic growth, decomposition analysis, international trade, and impact to mid-term studies (2011–2016) addressing technology, driving forces, management, carbon tax, financial development, environmental regulation, and innovation, and later studies (2017–present) exploring trade openness, renewable energy consumption, technological progress, globalization, green innovation, green finance, green credit, the digital economy, and others. Research on CE forecasting commenced in 2007 but has not received attention until recently. Following the Chinese government’s commitment in 2016 to achieve carbon peaking by 2030, Chinese scholars have conducted a considerable amount of empirical research on CE forecasting. Relevant keywords include “carbon peak”, “dynamics”, and others. Since 2005, CEE has gradually become a focus of Chinese scholars, with keywords such as “energy efficiency”, “efficiency”, “data envelopment analysis”, “environmental efficiency”, and others. Additionally, from 2013 onward, carbon footprint research has gradually attracted the attention of Chinese scholars, with keywords like “carbon footprint” and “supply chain”, among others. However, in recent years, research on carbon footprints has gradually decreased. Finally, after 2009, to understand regional and industry-specific CE characteristics, Chinese scholars have gradually turned their attention to CE differential analysis. Relevant keywords include “industry”, “city”, “panel data”, “sector”, “regional differences”, and others.