Should the Biden Administration Pressure the Ukrainians to go to the Negotiating Table and Resolve the Dispute with Russia Diplomatically?

Avoiding A Protracted Conflict: The Biden Administration should push the Ukrainians towards a negotiated settlement to avoid a prolonged conflict in Ukraine and mitigate further casualties and devastation. Acknowledging the grim reality that extended warfare carries, there is a need to maintain an open diplomatic channel with Russia to help bring this invasion to an end and to save Ukrainian lives. The sooner a peace agreement can be reached, the sooner Ukraine can begin to rebuild its communities.

Sustainability of Western Support: It is important to recognize the limitations of military and economic aid from Ukraine’s Western partners, particularly as we see aid for Ukraine still stalled in the U.S. Congress. Therefore, the U.S. should be pragmatic in its approach to ensuring Ukraine’s survival by pushing for a peace agreement now to secure a stable and sustainable future for Ukraine later.

Negotiations under Trump Would be a Catastrophe: The current political landscape in the U.S. could provide a better window of opportunity for Ukraine to negotiate more favorable conditions of a potential peace agreement with Russia. Should Trump win the 2024 presidential elections, Ukraine could be forced to accept less advantageous terms in a peace agreement, particularly given Trump’s concerning history with Russia and Ukraine. Therefore, considering the unpredictable nature of the U.S. political system, the Biden administration should push the Ukrainians toward a negotiated peace now.

Realpolitik Considerations: Ukraine is currently facing harsh challenges in passing a mobilization law in the face of low public support and overall morale. Given how difficult Ukraine is finding it to meet the demand for greater troop reserves, a negotiated settlement might reflect a more pragmatic strategy for Ukraine. Therefore, the U.S. should push Ukraine to the negotiating table to maintain public support in Ukraine for Zelenskyy and his government. This would be in Ukraine’s long-term interests and could forge a path to peace that conserves resources and sustains public morale in Ukraine.

Strategic Shift to China: It is in the strategic interests of the U.S. to pressure the Ukrainians to go to the negotiating table with Russia as it would allow the U.S. to shift its focus to an even greater world power: China. By forcing the Ukrainians to negotiate, the U.S. can reallocate attention and resources to backing Taiwan and addressing the challenge of China which is arguably a much larger emerging threat. Moreover, a peace settlement could afford the U.S. an opportunity to reverse an ever-growing relationship between Russia and China.