international relations

The mainstream media are busily reproaching themselves for having been so out of touch with the economic troubles of angry white working men that they were late in taking Donald Trump’s presidential campaign seriously.   Most of us can…

The TPP (Trans Pacific Partnership) that was finally agreed among trade negotiators of 12 Pacific countries on October 5 came as a triumph over long odds.  Tremendous political obstacles, domestic and international, had to be overcome…

US President Barack Obama has racked up a series of foreign-policy triumphs over the last 12 months. But one that has gained less attention than others was the passage last December of legislation to reform the International Monetary…

In a sort of year-end look back on Prime Minister Abe’s record and on Japan’s current situation, Reuters Japan has asked for action points or policy suggestions regarding economic and foreign policy.  Here are the responses I…

The ITC Wednesday released its mandated report on the economic effects estimated to result from the TransPacific Partnership.  As is usual in standard trade models, the estimated welfare gains may sound small: on the order of ¼ % of…

My answers to three questions at the start of 2016 (from Chosun Ilbo, leading Korean newspaper):1. How do you analyze the recent US interest hike, and how will it influence the global economy in the coming year?The Fed had telegraphed…

President Obama is still pressing the difficult campaign to obtain Trade Promotion Authority and use it to conclude international negotiations -- across one ocean for the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP), and then across the other ocean…

As the G-7 Leaders gather in Ise-Shima, Japan, on May 26-27, the still fragile global economy is on their minds.  They would like a road map to address stagnant growth. Their approach should be to talk less about currency wars and more…

Henry Kissinger – longtime scholar and diplomat – died on Wednesday, November 29. Several Belfer Center foreign policy and security experts share their thoughts on the impact Kissinger has had on the U.S., the world, and on themselves. …

Any international agreement to address climate change must rest on broad public support in developed nations for mitigation actions. We propose an international climate architecture that builds on such public support — which we hope will…

Trade is now high on the agenda in Washington. President Obama is pushing hard for Congress to give him Trade Promotion Authority (TPA), once known as fast-track authority.  He intends to use it to complete negotiations with 11 trading…

When Henry Kissinger reached the 100-year marker last Spring, I was fortunate to be able to join with his many friends and admirers in celebrating his birthday and thank him personally for more than I can express in words. In short, he…

When Henry Kissinger reached the 100-year marker last Spring, I was fortunate to be able to join with his many friends and admirers in celebrating his birthday and thank him personally for more than I can express in words. In short, he…

SUMMARY FOR POLICYMAKERSOVERVIEWThis paper proposes a design for a post-2012 international climate agreement (Kyoto II) to follow the Kyoto Protocol. The proposed design would impose national limits on rich countries' greenhouse gas…

In recent op-eds and blog-posts I have argued that prospective trade agreements like the TPP (the Trans Pacific Partnership) would be economically beneficial for reasons similar to past trade agreements and that they would have …

How should one apply morality to Henry Kissinger's statesmanship? How does one balance his accomplishments against his misdeeds? I have wrestled with those questions since Kissinger was my professor, and later colleague, at Harvard…

ABSTRACTThe last ten years have seen the growth of linkages between many of the world's cap-and-trade systems for greenhouse gases (GHGs), both directly between systems, and indirectly via connections to credit systems such as the Clean…

Observers have pointed out many parallels between the June referendum on Brexit in the United Kingdom and Donald Trump’s presidential campaign in the US.  One parallel is that both the British movement to leave the EU and the Trump…

In June, Republican lawmakers adopted an amendment to the 2024 National Defense Authorization Act to develop a sea-launched nuclear cruise missile and recently included funding in appropriations legislation for the Department of Energy.…

SUMMARY FOR POLICYMAKERSOVERVIEWSuccess in upcoming climate negotiations will require a clear-eyed view of the relationship between emissions targets and equity goals.  This paper uses the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis…

Hillary Clinton has been saying that the US economy does much better when a Democrat is president than when a Republican is.  When the press goes to fact-check the claim, they can be forgiven for having  a presumption that it can’t be…

This paper provides a brief overview of current AI-related biosecurity concerns and outlines where further analysis is still required.“The biggest issue with AI is actually going to be … its use in biological conflict,” according to…

Spying and surveillance are different but related things. If I hired a private detective to spy on you, that detective could hide a bug in your home or car, tap your phone, and listen to what you said. At the end, I would get a report of…

If you don't like the legacy of an American president, just wait awhile and it will likely change. For that is the iron law of presidential reputations: With rare exceptions, they fluctuate over time.This is certainly true with Lyndon…

Key TakeawaysThe social cost of carbon (SCC) is an important accounting exercise to estimate of the future costs to society caused by anthropogenic climate change driven by carbon emissions.There is significant variation in published…

Henry Kissinger's death last week produced a predictable flood of commentary, ranging from steadfast admiration to passionate criticism. I published my own assessment of his career on the occasion of his 100th birthday a few months ago,…

If you ask Alexa, Amazon’s voice assistant AI system, whether Amazon is a monopoly, it responds by saying it doesn’t know. It doesn’t take much to make it lambaste the other tech giants, but it’s silent about its own corporate parent’s…

Gwich’in Story: Narrative of Homelands and ResilienceEven though almost forty years have passed, I remember vividly the first time I saw lightning in the Arctic: the forking flash igniting the blackened sky and the earth rumbling boom,…

SUMMARY FOR POLICYMAKERSOVERVIEWThe ability to compare the aspirations and effectiveness of domestic actions to mitigate global climate change is vital to the success of international climate agreements. The current research explores a…

How should one evaluate the agreement reached in Paris December 12 by the 21st Conference of Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)?   Some avid environmentalists may have been disappointed in the outcome.  The…

BOOK REVIEW“Getting Russia Right”By Thomas GrahamPolity, October 2023Multiple books have been published since Vladimir Putin’s re-invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 that explore the sources of Russia’s aggressive conduct. In fact, some…

Research in the biological sciences enables significant advancements in areas as broad as agriculture, manufacturing, environment, and health, but can also pose serious risks. In particular, research with pathogens and toxins is…

A second Russian pollster reports that the share of Russians who advocate for peace negotiations with Ukraine has exceeded the share of their compatriots who favor continuing the war. The devil is in details, however.When It Comes to…

This essay was originally presented at an AI Cyber Lunch on September 20, 2023, at Harvard Kennedy School.I trusted a lot today. I trusted my phone to wake me on time. I trusted Uber to arrange a taxi for me, and the driver to get me to…

Executive SummaryFuture Chinese overseas naval bases may threaten U.S. interests, and the United States needs a better plan for understanding and responding to this threat. While China has thus far relied on commercial ports to satisfy…

Will the latest Gaza war have far-reaching repercussions? As a rule, I think adverse geopolitical developments are usually balanced by countervailing forces of various kinds, and events in one small part of the world tend not to have…

On October 30, 2023, President Biden issued Executive Order (14110) on the Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Development and Use of Artificial Intelligence. Directing agencies to take action within existing resources and authorities, this…

Efforts around and impacts of global methane-emissions abatement will be the focus at an official side event on December 6 co-sponsored by the Harvard Project on Climate Agreements at the 28th Conference of the Parties (COP-28) of the…

Key TakeawaysDirect air carbon capture and storage (DACCS) remains at an early stage of deployment and realizing its full emissions reduction potential will take many decades. By 2050, DACCS appears likely to achieve removals equivalent…

Despite the meeting between presidents Joe Biden and Xi Jinping in California this week, at which the two leaders agreed to resume military communications, relations between the US and China remain fraught. Some Americans refer to a new…

The ongoing fighting in Gaza presents a significant risk for expansion into a broader war. Although Iran may or may not have orchestrated the initial Hamas terrorist attack and isn't directly involved in the fighting, Tehran has a…

Buffalo, El Paso, Glendale, Calif., and Colorado Springs. Those are just a few of the cities that have been racked by social media-fueled terrorist attacks since 2019. Statistically, it will only be a matter of months before the U.S.…

It's Thanksgiving week here in the United States, and the timing couldn't be worse. Given the events of the past year—and especially the past seven weeks—it's easier to find reasons to be angry or anxious than to give thanks. The war in…

One of the major factors affecting the speed of the ongoing energy transition is the process for obtaining federal permits for building new clean energy infrastructure. According to some estimates, the United States needs to increase the…

The Security and Global Health Project is proud to present a weekly web series with Security Mom Juliette Kayyem and Medicine Mom Dr. Margaret Bourdeaux. Each week, our experts will answer your questions from quarantine and give you…

World oil prices have been highly volatile during the last decade.   Over the past year they have fallen more than 50%.Should we root for prices to go up, down, or stay the same?   The economic effects of falling oil prices are negative…

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda.Nuclear security:No significant developments.Iran nuclear issues:No significant developments.NATO-Russia relations:Poll in Sweden revealed significant shift in public opinion that…

Alexis Tsipras, the Greek prime minister, has the chance to play a role for his country analogous to the roles played by Korean President Kim Dae Jung in 1997 and Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in 2002.  Both of those…

SUMMARY FOR POLICYMAKERSOVERVIEWThere is considerable tension between climate-policy goals and actual energy trends in the European Union (EU). On the one hand, the EU has pledged a 40% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions by 2030,…

Why Vote? Follow-upAnonymous Mon, 10/24/2016 - 16:31 My preceding blogpost — “A Radical Solution to the Fundamental Flaws in US Politics: Vote!” — received several objections from readers to the effect that I had failed to address the…