Sustainable Development of the Rural Labor Market in China from the Perspective of Occupation Structure Transformation
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4.1. Overall Changes in the Occupation Structure
Our data show that the transformation of occupations of off-farm rural laborers has clear trends. The proportion of off-farm rural laborers engaged in routine occupations decreased continuously from 74.18 percent in 2007 to 60.80 percent in 2022 (Table 2, Row 1, Columns 1 and 5). However, the share of off-farm rural laborers engaged in non-routine occupations exhibited an upward trend, with bumps and buts, over the same period: it was 16.92 percent in 2008 and slightly declined to 16.74 in 2012 then climbed up to 19.96 percent in 2016 before dropping slightly to 19.57 in 2022 (Row 4).
When examining the evolution of specific occupations, we found that the decrease in the share of routine manual occupations was the major contributor to the reduction in the proportion of rural laborers engaging in routine occupations. Specifically, the share of off-farm rural laborers engaged in routine manual occupations decreased by 13.82 percentage points (Row 3). This finding is similar to the trend found by Ge et al. [8] using national census data from 2000 to 2015. However, the proportion of off-farm rural laborers engaged in routine manual occupations in our study is much higher than that in the study by Ge et al. [8], which focused on the labor force in urban areas, including both local natives and migrants. This difference may result from the fact that engaging in routine manual jobs is one of the characteristics of rural laborers’ off-farm employment. Compared with the dramatic change in the proportion of off-farm rural laborers in routine manual jobs, their share in routine cognitive occupations remained relatively consistent (Row 5).
The evolution of two specific categories of non-routine occupations shows different patterns. The share of off-farm rural laborers in non-routine cognitive occupations showed an upward trend from 2007 to 2022, increasing by 4.48 percentage points (Row 5). However, their share in non-routine manual occupations decreased by 1.83 percentage points during the same period (Row 6).
The proportion of non-working rural laborers increased from 2008 to 2022, rising from 8.9 percent in 2008 to 19.63 percent in 2022 (Row 7). Compared with the urban areas in China, Ge et al. [8] found that the proportion of non-working laborers increased from 27 percent in 2000 to 31 percent in 2015, while the non-working share rose from 25 percent to 28 percent in the United States over the same period [18]. The upward trend observed in our research is consistent with the national census data, but the proportion is only about half of the latter, which defined the non-working group as the labor force not working for income for over an hour in the last week [37]. Our findings indicate that nearly 1/5 of rural laborers had no work, neither in the agricultural nor in the non-agricultural sectors, in 2022.
To sum up, the transformation of the off-farm rural labor market is mainly reflected in the increased share of non-routine cognitive and non-working laborers, and the decreased share of routine manual laborers, which aligns with China’s overall reduction in demand for low-skilled routine employees in the manufacturing industry, and reflects the growing number of new-generation rural workers with higher education attainment [38].
4.2. Transformation of Occupation Structure by Demographic Characteristics
4.2.1. Transformation of Occupation Structure by Gender
Our data show similar trends but different shares of the fractions of males and females in each occupation category from 2007 to 2022 (Figure 1).
The share of both male and female off-farm rural laborers engaged in routine manual occupations decreased, but at different rates, in 2007–2022. It was 78.21 percent for males in 2007, which was 1.68 times that of females, at 46.62 percent. By 2022, the proportion of males in routine manual occupations had declined to 70.25 percent, 2.21 times that of females, at 31.81 percent. This implies a widening gender gap in the share of off-farm rural laborers in routine manual occupations.
There were different trends in the shares of male and female off-farm rural laborers engaged in routine cognitive occupations in 2007–2022. For males, the share increased from 4.14 percent in 2007 to 5.87 percent in 2018, with a slight decrease between 2011 and 2015, and then declined to 5.2 percent in 2022. In contrast, the share of females engaged in routine cognitive occupations exhibited the opposite trend by 2018; it decreased from 13.52 percent in 2007 to 12.2 percent in 2011, then increased to 13.19 percent in 2015. This was followed by a 1.5 percentage point decline in 2018. Similar to males, the share of females in routine cognitive occupations decreased from 2018 to 2022 but the decrease rate was much lower than that among males.
There were decreasing trends, with some rebounds, in the proportions of both male and female off-farm rural laborers engaged in non-routine manual occupations from 2007 to 2022. The proportion of males in non-routine manual occupations decreased from 6.14 percent in 2007 to 4.74 percent in 2015, then increased to 5.43 percent in 2018. This was followed by a decline of 1.05 percentage points from 2018 to 2022. The proportion of females in non-routine manual occupations was 12.46 percent in 2007, which was 2.02 times that of males; it increased to 12.78 percent in 2011 and then declined continuously to 9.32 percent in 2022.
The trends of both males and females in non-routine cognitive occupations increased from 2007 to 2022. It was 7.59 percent for males in 2007, which was 2.37 percentage points less than that of females. This then increased continuously to 11.46 percent in 2022, 3.26 percentage points less than that of females. These findings reflect that females are more likely to have postgraduate education that benefits them in obtaining non-routine cognitive jobs. It implies a widening gender gap in the share of rural laborers in non-routine cognitive occupations. Compared with the consistent trend among males, the increasing trend among females showed a slight descent, declining 0.83 percentage points in 2007–2011.
The share of non-working male and female rural laborers increased at different rates during the same period. It climbed from 17.44 percent to 32.73 percent for females in 2007; this was much more than for males, which increased by 4.78 percentage points. By 2022, nearly 1/3 of females were working in neither farming nor off-farm jobs, indicating that females faced more difficulty in achieving sustainable employment. From 2018 to 2022, the share of non-working males increased much more dramatically than before 2018. These findings reveal gender inequality and high employment pressures among rural laborers.
There are huge gender differences in the non-working share of females and the routine manual share of males. Gender differences remain the fundamental form of labor market discrimination and have always attracted great attention from scholars. Existing research indicates that there are still unequal employment opportunities for males and females in China and other countries. In sectors such as manufacturing and construction, the ratio of male employees is significantly higher than that of female employees. Men are more distributed in the manual labor-intensive industry, while women are more distributed in the tertiary industry. Sectoral segregation in the employment of different genders is increasing [39], which means that gender differences are becoming increasingly evident. With the widening gender gap resulting from the structural transformation of the labor market, Li et al. [40] found that females were more severely discriminated against and more likely to lose their jobs. Additionally, some female rural laborers chose to quit off-farm jobs and remain unemployed to take care of their family members [41].
4.2.2. Transformation of Occupation Structure by Educational Attainment
Rural laborers with different educational attainment experienced disparate transformations of occupations (Table 3).
For rural laborers with primary school education and below, the overall share of off-farm rural laborers engaged in each occupation category decreased, while the share of those not working increased. The share of those engaged in routine cognitive occupations decreased, with rebounds from 2007 to 2022. Specifically, it declined from 4.02 percent in 2007 to 2.03 percent in 2011, increased to 3.6 percent in 2015, then declined to 2.71 percent in 2018. This was followed by a 0.38 percentage point increase in 2022 (Rows 1–5, Column 1). The share of those engaged in routine manual occupations increased from 72.99 percent in 2007 to 75.15 percent in 2011 and then declined continuously to 59.19 percent in 2022 (Rows 1–5, Column 2). The share of rural laborers in non-routine cognitive occupations increased from 2.87 percent in 2007 to 3.78 percent in 2011, declined to 1.66 percent in 2018, and then increased slightly to 1.96 percent in 2022 (Rows 1–5, Column 3). The share that was engaged in non-routine manual occupations declined from 8.24 percent in 2007 to 6.54 percent in 2011, and increased to 9.49 percent in 2015, followed by a continuous decline to 5.75 percent in 2022 (Rows 1–5, Column 4). The share of those not working showed steadily increasing trends from 11.88 percent to 30.01 percent in 2007–2022 (Rows 1–5, Column 5). These findings indicate that the increase in the non-working group is the main driver of the occupational transformation of rural laborers with education levels at primary school and below.
For rural laborers with junior high school education, the trends in occupational transformation were quite different from those of laborers with primary school education and below, with increasing shares of laborers in non-routine cognitive occupations and non-working laborers but decreasing shares of laborers in other occupation categories. The share of those with non-routine cognitive occupations and those not working showed steadily increasing trends, from 4.65 percent to 6.03 percent (Rows 6–10, Column 3) and 8.29 percent to 17.39 percent (Rows 6–10, Column 5), respectively, in 2007–2022. Comparatively, the share of those engaged in routine cognitive occupations increased from 6.12 percent in 2007 to 7.2 percent in 2018, followed by a 1.52 percentage point decline in 2022 (Rows 6–10, Column 1). The share of off-farm rural laborers in routine manual occupations showed the opposite trend, decreasing from 71.57 percent in 2007 to 61.14 percent in 2018, followed by a 1.46 percentage point increase in 2022 (Rows 6–10, Column 2). Unlike the trends for laborers engaged in routine occupations, the share of those in non-routine manual occupations increased from 9.37 percent in 2007 to 9.69 percent in 2011, declined to 8.94 percent in 2015, then increased to 9.47 percent in 2018, followed by a 1.17 percentage point decrease in 2022 (Rows 6–10, Column 4).
For the group of laborers with senior high school education, the overall trends in occupational transformation were similar to those of laborers with junior high school education, but with different patterns at different periods and different shares in each occupation category. For example, the share of those engaged in routine cognitive occupations increased from 12.09 percent in 2007 to 13.75 percent in 2011, then decreased to 11.21 percent in 2015, followed by a 0.57 percentage point increase in 2022 (Rows 11–15, Column 1). The share of those engaged in routine manual occupations decreased steadily from 55.77 percent in 2007 to 45.42 percent in 2022 (Rows 11–15, Column 2), then decreased from 17.58 percent in 2007 to 14.69 percent in 2011, followed by a 4.19 percentage point increase in 2022 for those engaged in non-routine cognitive occupations (Rows 11–15, Column 3). The share of those not working increased from 7.69 percent in 2007 to 16.11 percent in 2015, then decreased to 13.98 percent in 2018, followed by a 3.96 percentage point increase in 2022 (Rows 11–15, Column 5).
For those with college education and above, the trends in occupational transformation differed from those with junior and senior high school education. Specifically, the share of those engaged in routine manual occupations increased from 16.38 percent in 2007 to 25.46 percent in 2015, then decreased to 22.66 percent in 2022 (Rows 16–20, Column 2), exhibiting an overall increasing trend, which was opposite to those with junior and senior high school education. The share of those engaged in non-routine cognitive occupations decreased from 47.41 percent in 2007 to 34.93 percent in 2011, then increased to 45.81 percent in 2018, followed by a 2.98 percentage point decrease in 2022 (Rows 16–20, Column 3), exhibiting an overall decreasing trend that also differed from those with junior and senior high school education. For those engaged in routine cognitive and non-routine manual occupations, as well as those not working, the trends in occupational transformation were similar to those with junior and senior high school education.
Additionally, certain trends were observed across education groups during this period. For example, the proportion of off-farm rural laborers engaged in routine manual jobs decreased with the rise in educational attainment. The proportion of rural laborers with college degrees or above in manual jobs was significantly lower than those of rural laborers with other educational attainment, both in routine and non-routine manual jobs. Conversely, the proportion of off-farm rural laborers engaged in either routine cognitive jobs or non-routine cognitive jobs increased with the rise in educational attainment.
4.2.3. Transformation of Occupation Structure by Age Groups
We then examined occupational transformations based on the three age groups referred by Ge et al. [8]: 16–29 years for the young group, 30–49 years for the middle-aged group, and 50–64 years for the old group.
For the young age group, the overall share of those engaged in cognitive occupations and those not working increased with the decline in manual occupations. Specifically, the share of those engaged in routine cognitive occupations increased from 12.45 percent in 2007 to 15.25 percent in 2022, with a slight drop in 2018–2022 (Table 4, Rows 1–5, Column 1). The share of those engaged in non-routine cognitive occupations showed steadily increasing trends from 6.67 percent in 2007 to 23.05 percent in 2022 (Rows 1–5, Column 3). The share of those not working increased from 11.06 percent in 2007 to 18.71 percent in 2015, then decreased to 16.8 percent in 2018, followed by a 2.09 percentage point increase in 2022 (Rows 1–5, Column 5). Although the overall share of those engaged in manual occupations decreased, there were different evolution patterns between routine and non-routine occupations. The share of those engaged in routine manual occupations decreased steadily from 55.78 percent in 2007 to 33.62 percent in 2022 (Rows 1–5, Column 2). However, the share of those engaged in non-routine manual occupations decreased from 14.04 percent in 2007 to 9.74 percent in 2015, then increased to 10.75 percent in 2018, followed by a 1.56 percentage point decrease in 2022 (Rows 1–5, Column 4). These findings indicate that, in the past 15 years, young rural laborers in China have shifted from manual occupations to cognitive occupations or to not working.
For the middle-aged group, the most significant transformation of occupation was the declining share of those engaged in routine manual jobs. Of these, 78.68 percent engaged in routine manual occupations in 2007, but this dropped continuously, reaching 57.05 percent in 2022 (Rows 6–10, Column 2). With this trend, the shares of those engaged in other occupations and those not working increased during the same period. For example, the share of those in routine cognitive occupations increased steadily from 3.76 percent in 2007 to 9.16 percent in 2022 (Rows 6–10, Column 1). Although the share of those engaged in non-routine cognitive occupations decreased from 8.78 percent in 2007 to 8.23 percent in 2011, it subsequently increased to 12.11 percent in 2022 (Rows 6–10, Column 3). The share of those not working showed a continuously increasing trend from 4.39 percent to 14.46 percent in 2007–2022 (Rows 6–10, Column 5).
The old age group was more likely to exit the labor market, while the share of those not working increased dramatically from 2007 to 2022; the share of those not working in 2022 was 27.69 percent, which was 1.8 times that in 2007 (Rows 11–15, Column 5). The share of those engaged in routine cognitive, routine manual, and non-routine cognitive occupations decreased by 1.7, 7.34, and 4.42 percentage points from 2007 to 2022, respectively (Rows 11–15, Columns 1–3).
These findings indicate that the increasing proportion of non-routine cognitive jobs and the decreasing proportion of routine manual jobs were mainly driven by occupational changes within the young and middle-aged groups, while the increasing proportion of the non-working group was mainly driven by occupational changes within the old age group.
4.2.4. Transformation of Occupation Structure by Working Destination
There were similar trends, but different shares, of rural laborers working within and outside their home counties in each category from 2007 to 2022 (Figure 2).
Off-farm rural laborers engaged in routine manual occupations and working within or outside their home counties showed decreasing trends from 2007 to 2022; 61.18 percent worked within their home counties in 2007. This was 11.26 percentage points less than those working outside their home counties. The proportion then decreased continuously to 48.95 percent in 2022, 9.72 percentage points less than those working outside their home counties. Compared with the consistent trend of those working outside their home counties, the decreasing trend of those working within their home counties showed a slight descent, increasing by 0.12 percentage points in 2015–2018.
The trends of changes in the shares of off-farm rural laborers engaged in routine cognitive occupations were not obvious for those who worked within their home counties and those who worked outside their home counties in 2007–2022. It increased from 4.79 percent in 2007 to 7.31 percent in 2015, then declined to 6.16 percent in 2018, followed by a 0.3 percentage point increase in 2022 for those who worked within their home counties. Similar to those working within their home counties, the share of off-farm rural laborers engaged in routine cognitive occupations and working outside their home counties increased from 10.61 percent in 2007 to 11.25 percent in 2011, decreased from 11.25 percent in 2011 to 10.42 percent in 2015, and then increased to 12.23 percent in 2018, followed by a 1.78 percentage point decline in 2022.
The share of off-farm rural laborers engaged in non-routine manual occupations showed different trends between those who worked within their home counties and those who worked outside their home counties from 2007 to 2022. For those who worked within their home counties, it increased from 5.88 percent in 2007 to 6.94 percent in 2018, followed by a 1.11 percentage point decline in 2022. For those who worked outside their home counties, it decreased from 11.24 percent in 2007 to 7.86 percent in 2022.
There were different patterns in the increasing trends in the shares of off-farm rural laborers in non-routine cognitive occupations who worked within their home counties and those who worked outside their home counties from 2007 to 2022. It was a V-shaped transformation for those who worked within their home counties, decreasing from 12.61 percent in 2007 to 11.64 percent in 2011, then increasing to 14.29 in 2022. However, it followed an S-shaped pattern for those who worked outside their home counties, with slightly faster growth in 2011–2015.
The share of non-working rural laborers increased among both those who worked within their home counties and those who worked outside their home counties, with different rates in the same period. It was 15.55 percent in 2007 for those who worked within their home counties and increased to 24.47 percent in 2022, with a little fast growth before 2015. However, it was 1.72 percent in 2007 for those who worked outside their home counties and increased to 12.16 percent in 2022, with slightly faster growth after 2018.
There were narrowing gaps in the share of rural laborers in each category of occupation between those who worked within their home counties and those who worked outside their home counties. For example, the share of off-farm rural laborers engaged in non-routine cognitive occupations and working within their home counties was 3.16 times that of those working outside their home counties in 2007 but decreased to 1.32 times in 2022. The share of non-working rural laborers within their home counties was 9.04 times that of those working outside their home counties in 2007 but decreased to 2.01 times in 2022.
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