Analysis of Business Risk Measurement and Factors Influencing Plantation-Based Farming Cooperatives: Evidence from Guizhou Province, China
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3.2.5. Analysis of Factors Influencing Business Risk
According to Table 7, the six latent variables of policy environment, economic environment, social service environment, technical environment, self-resource endowment, and manager characteristics all passed the significance test, and their standardized path coefficients were 0.219, 0.522, 0.114, 0.323, 0.331, and 0.533, respectively, verifying Hypotheses H1–H6. From the perspective of influential effects, the influence values of each factor influencing business risk are shown in Figure 4. Among them, the economic environment and manager characteristics have a strong influence, the technical environment and self-resource endowment have a moderate influence, and the policy environment and social service environment have a relatively weak influence on the business risk faced by plantation-based farming cooperatives.
According to the fit results of the modified model, the latent variable “Policy environment” has a significant positive impact on the business risk faced by plantation-based farming cooperatives. The standardized path load is 0.219, and hypothesis H1 can be verified. Firstly, government subsidies can not only provide direct financial support to cooperatives but also attract investment from industrial and commercial capital [67], thus promoting the development of cooperatives and reducing their business risk. Secondly, the more support from the government and the more practical implementation of resource factors, financial credit, and fiscal/tax systems, the more direct and indirect benefits cooperatives can receive. Presuming other market conditions are the same, cooperatives that enjoy their policy advantages will have a significant comparative advantage in market competition, thereby reducing their business risk. Thirdly, moderate-scale operation is an important way to improve agricultural efficiency and increase income, and it is also the main form of operation for plantation-based farming cooperatives. Land transfer is the key to promoting moderate-scale operations [68]. Therefore, a proactive land transfer policy will promote the development of plantation-based farming cooperatives. The more convenient the land transfer, the lower the cost of factors paid by the cooperatives, and the easier it is to form moderate-scale operations. In this way, the resistance to the development of cooperatives will become smaller and the business risk will be reduced.
The “Economic environment” has a significant positive impact on the business risk faced by plantation-based farming cooperatives. The standardized path load is 0.522, and hypothesis H2 is verified. First, plantation-based farming cooperatives are suppliers in the produce market, and the produce price has a significant impact on cooperatives’ planting willingness and behavioral choices. From the perspective of producers, the higher the product price, the stronger the enthusiasm of the producers. When other conditions are the same and the production costs are equal, producers are more willing to produce agricultural products with higher prices to obtain greater profits. At the same time, reasonable and stable prices are the foundation for ensuring a sustainable economy and market stability, and they are also crucial to the sound development of plantation-based farming cooperatives. The instability of produce prices due to market disruption and economic uncertainty will to some extent exacerbate the business risk faced by plantation-based farming cooperatives. Second, in terms of financial supply, diverse financing channels, convenient credit processes, and diverse guarantee methods can promote the improvement of the cooperative’s financing environment. The better the financing environment, the less financial pressure the cooperatives will face, thereby reducing their business risks. Third, a stable and sustainable supply and marketing channel can reduce the transaction costs of produce. At the same time, a stable supply and marketing channel usually guarantees the stability of product prices through formal or informal contracts, reducing the uncertainty of product sales and, thus, reducing transaction risks. Therefore, the more favorable the economic environment, the lower the business risk faced by plantation-based farming cooperatives.
The “Social service environment” has a significant positive impact on the business risk faced by plantation-based farming cooperatives. The standardized path load is 0.114, and hypothesis H3 is verified. First, the more outsourcing in agricultural production processes, the more advanced the business philosophy of the managers. Such managers are inclined to innovate business models and, therefore, enjoy lower management risk. On the other hand, by outsourcing agricultural production, the professional technologies required in the corresponding processes will be provided by outsourcing service provider, which avoids losses due to the lack of professional techniques in the cooperative itself, thus reducing the technical risks. Second, the higher the frequency of agricultural machinery leasing, the higher the level of mechanization and the larger the operational scale of the cooperative. In this way, cooperatives can achieve better economies of scale, more economic benefits, become more stable in operation and, thus, reduce their business risk. In addition, the more complete the logistics system of agricultural products, the more modern the storage, transportation, preservation, packaging, and other facilities are, reducing the losses in these processes and improving efficiency. The commodity value of produce is increased, market realization is improved, and cooperatives enjoy more benefits and more sound development with lower business risks.
The “Technical environment” has a significant positive impact on the business risks faced by plantation-based farming cooperatives. The standardized path load is 0.323, and hypothesis H4 is verified. First, the deep promotion and application of modern agricultural technology have lifted farmers from the passive situation of relying solely on natural conditions in agriculture. By dispatching technical talents and fostering new agricultural group leaders, agricultural science and technology can be introduced into agricultural production. Modern agricultural science and technology are used in a standardized and reasonable manner, thereby reducing the technical risk in cooperatives’ operations. Second, the adaptability of agricultural technology to the operational needs of cooperatives determines the degree to which cooperatives adopt this technology. The higher the adaptability, the more active the cooperatives are in using this technology, Conversely, cooperatives may consider abandoning the use of this technology (the use of technology has certain costs as well). Finally, agricultural technical talents are the main force in promoting the transformation and application of scientific and technological achievements in agriculture. The technical guidance and application that they provide have improved the technical efficiency of cooperatives’ production. From this perspective, the more abundant the resources of agricultural technical talents are, the higher the production efficiency of plantation-based farming cooperatives will become, thus generating a more stable technical environment and reducing business risk.
The “Self-resource endowment” has a significant positive impact on business risks faced by plantation-based farming cooperatives. The standardized path load is 0.331, and hypothesis H5 is verified. First, large-scale operations can improve land-use efficiency and increase income. Large-scale land operations indicate that the cooperative has strong profitability, sound development, and a strong ability to respond to business risks. Second, the longer the operation period of a cooperative, the more stable its development. This indicates that the cooperative has more experience in responding to and preventing various risks, making it more capable of bearing risk. Finally, industrial organizations can provide continuous supplementation of industrial components such as means of production and labor, enabling cooperatives to achieve high spillover effects in terms of economic benefits. At the same time, industrial organization can improve the efficiency of agricultural product circulation and reduce circulation costs, promote communication and cooperation between cooperatives and other business entities, and establish a stable and win–win supply and marketing relationship between cooperatives and other business entities. In this way, the stable supply of the agricultural materials required for cooperative production and stable marketing channels for produce sales can be ensured, thus reducing the business risk faced by plantation-based farming cooperatives.
The “Manager characteristics” have a significant positive impact on the business risk faced by plantation-based farming cooperatives. The standardized path load is 0.533, and hypothesis H6 is verified. First, young managers have a strong ability to learn and accept new things, and they are more willing to apply advanced science and technology to agricultural production, reducing the possibility of technological risks. At the same time, young managers are more skilled in accessing online information and can obtain market information more accurately and quickly. They can determine market demand, consumer preferences, and other information more fully, thereby reducing the possibility of market risk. Second, the higher the education level of the manager, the more comprehensive their understanding of relevant policies and market information, the more accurate their judgment of the development prospects of the agricultural product market, and the more scientific and reasonable their decision-making may be, reducing the possibility of management risks. Finally, entrepreneurs with firm development beliefs, a pioneering and innovative spirit, strong management capabilities, and the ability to resist pressure are more in line with the actual needs of the healthy development of cooperatives, thereby reducing the business risk faced by cooperatives.
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