Intention to Transition: Natural Rubber Smallholders Navigating the Risks of Farming

By inergency On Feb 23, 2024

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1. Introduction

Indonesia, as one of the World’s largest rubber producers, hosts a vast number of rubber farms that significantly contribute to the global supply. The number of rubber farms and their scale of production have evolved over time, reflecting changes in global market demands, technological advancements, and shifts towards sustainable farming practices [1,2]. Yet, current evolutions within the nation’s agricultural framework signify a transformative phase, where the traditional emphasis on rubber cultivation is diversifying towards other commodities [3,4]. The rubber industry, once a linchpin of both Indonesia’s and the global trade frameworks, is grappling with the changing preferences of farmers exploring diverse agricultural avenues [5]. This dynamic pivot, driven by a confluence of economic, social, and environmental factors, has cascading implications for sustainable agricultural practices and global commodity markets [6,7]. While exact numbers fluctuate, the trend indicates a diversification in farm sizes and a gradual increase in the adoption of practices aimed at enhancing rubber production’s sustainability. The asset value of these farms varies, but collectively, they represent a substantial economic sector within Indonesia, underscoring the importance of understanding the nuances of rubber farming in the country.

While rubber is not indigenous to Indonesia, its inherent adaptability has solidified its role within the country, and by extension, the global agricultural matrix [8,9]. The burgeoning interest in varied commodities, catalyzed by evolving global demand and economic incentives, is challenging the rubber sector’s traditional dominance [10]. Nevertheless, the unparalleled properties of natural rubber, which synthetic variants cannot fully emulate, emphasize its enduring global importance [11,12]. Such dynamics underscore the necessity for strategic adaptations to both sustain the rubber industry and embrace the diversifying preferences of farmers [13,14].

Recent trends unveil a nuanced narrative: a subtle reduction in rubber-centric agricultural spaces, coupled with an uptick in farmers’ inclination towards a broader spectrum of commodities [2,15]. The somewhat muted productivity in the rubber sector, often linked to the use of less optimal rubber clones and the aging of plantations, has ramifications that span beyond regional confines, affecting global supply chains [16,17]. Although considerable research has engaged with agricultural shifts at various scales, a holistic, global understanding of these transitions from rubber to diverse commodities remains a relatively uncharted domain.

While numerous studies have explored agricultural shifts on various scales, a comprehensive global analysis of the transition from rubber to diverse commodities remains largely untapped [18]. This study seeks to address this oversight by illuminating the myriad elements guiding Indonesian rubber farmers’ transitions and delving into the socio-economic and environmental dimensions of these changes. By emphasizing these agricultural transformations, the goal is to offer a profound understanding to global stakeholders, facilitating informed decisions that promote a balanced and sustainable future in the realm of agricultural commodities. This study distinguishes itself from the existing literature by integrating the Theory of Planned Behavior and Protection Motivation Theory to investigate the multifaceted decision-making processes of Indonesian rubber farmers. Despite the extensive research conducted on agricultural sustainability, few studies have explored these combined theoretical perspectives in understanding the behavioral intentions towards sustainable practices in the context of Indonesian agriculture. This approach provides a nuanced exploration of the motivations, challenges, and facilitators of sustainable agricultural adoption, offering a unique contribution to the fields of environmental psychology and sustainable development.

As Indonesia witnesses a shift in its agricultural practices, with a notable move away from traditional rubber farming to a more varied array of agricultural commodities, the need arises to delve deeper into the factors influencing these transitions [3]. This transformation, fueled by both internal motivations and external pressures, marks a pivotal moment in the nation’s agricultural history [19]. It calls for an in-depth examination of the decision-making processes of Indonesian rubber farmers, a demographic at the heart of this change. In response to this need, our study introduces the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) and the Protection Motivation Theory (PMT) as the foundational frameworks for understanding these shifts. By applying the TPB and PMT, we aim to unravel the complex interplay of attitudes, social norms, perceived risks, and coping mechanisms that drive farmers’ choices in transitioning from rubber to a more diverse agricultural practice. This theoretical approach not only sheds light on the psychological underpinnings of these transitions but also paves the way for more nuanced insights into the socio-economic and environmental dimensions of these agricultural shifts.

This research is strategically anchored in the use of the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) and the Protection Motivation Theory (PMT) to decode the multifaceted decision-making processes of Indonesian rubber farmers. The choice of these two theories is deliberate and pivotal. The TPB, formulated by Ajzen [20], offers a robust psychological framework that explicates the role of individual attitudes, subjective norms, and perceived behavioral control in shaping intentions and behaviors. This theory is particularly relevant in understanding the agricultural domain as it allows for an exploration of how farmers’ attitudes towards rubber farming (ATT), the influence of social and community norms (SN), and their sense of control over farming practices (PBC) play a crucial role in their decision to either persist with or transition from traditional rubber farming. Such insights are essential in comprehending the complex interplay of personal beliefs, societal pressures, and perceived abilities, as underscored in studies by Borges et al. [21] and Daxini et al. [22].

Concurrently, the PMT, introduced by Rogers [23], complements the TPB by focusing on the cognitive processes involved in risk evaluation and coping strategies. It is particularly germane in agricultural contexts where farmers are frequently confronted with environmental- and market-related risks. The PMT emphasizes the importance of Understanding of Risk (UR), through which farmers’ appraisals of threats (TA) and their coping strategies (CA) are examined. This theory is crucial for unraveling how farmers perceive ecological challenges and their belief in their ability to adapt effectively to these challenges, a notion supported by the works of Aghdasi et al. [24] and Luu et al. [25]. By integrating the TPB and PMT, this study aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of the psychological and practical dimensions of farming decisions. The TPB sheds light on how internal and social factors influence farmers’ willingness to adopt change [26], while the PMT offers insights into how they assess and respond to external threats and challenges [27]. This dual theoretical approach is instrumental in dissecting the economic and environmental factors driving agricultural transitions, as discussed by Ataei et al. [28] and Laporte [29] in terms of economic aspects and Eakin et al. [30] and Magdoff et al. [31] in terms of environmental ones. Ultimately, the fusion of these theories enables a nuanced understanding of the determinants influencing farmers’ transitions to sustainable practices to be generated, addressing a critical gap in the existing agricultural research.

In this analysis, transition is characterized as a complex process that encompasses both the diversification of agricultural production and the embrace of sustainable practices. Here, diversification is portrayed as the expansion of agricultural activities beyond the traditional confines of rubber cultivation, whereas sustainable practices are identified by their environmental sustainability, economic viability, and social responsibility. Interviews conducted across a diverse cohort of farmers revealed a broad spectrum of interpretations, ranging from diversification to full sustainability, which have been systematically categorized to reflect this variance. For enhanced clarity within this analytical framework, attitude specifically denotes the perceptions and sentiments of farmers towards the adoption of sustainable agricultural practices. This term encapsulates their optimism, satisfaction, and the perceived advantages associated with transitioning from conventional to more ecologically sustainable practices. Thus, a better attitude signifies an elevated positive perception and an increased willingness to undertake sustainable practices.

In essence, this study seamlessly integrates the TPB and PMT, crafting a cohesive analytical framework. It rigorously traces the trajectory of rubber farming’s transformation and its emerging alternatives. Through this intricate exploration, the research not only seeks to fill prevailing knowledge gaps but also aims to generate practical insights that can shape future agricultural policies and strategies. A visual representation of this study’s conceptual foundation can be found in Figure 1. To further elucidate the theoretical underpinnings of the hypothesized pathways proposed in this study, it is essential to draw upon both the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) and Protection Motivation Theory (PMT). These frameworks collectively offer a robust lens through which the decision-making processes of Indonesian rubber farmers regarding sustainable agricultural practices can be understood. The TPB posits that an individual’s behavior is directly influenced by their intention to perform the behavior, which is in turn shaped by attitudes, subjective norms, and perceived behavioral control. The PMT complements this by suggesting that individuals’ motivations to engage in protective behaviors, such as adopting sustainable practices, are influenced by their perceptions of threat severity, vulnerability, response efficacy, and self-efficacy. By integrating these theories, this study aims to comprehensively explore how farmers’ attitudes, perceived social pressures, and control beliefs contribute to their intentions and actions towards sustainability. This theoretical framework not only grounds our hypotheses but also aligns with empirical evidence, indicating the pivotal role of these constructs in environmental behavior change among agricultural communities.

(1)

H1: Understanding of Risk

H1a: A higher Understanding of Risk (UR) is negatively related to Attitude (ATT).

H1b: A higher Understanding of Risk (UR) is negatively related to Subjective Norm (SN).

H1c: A higher Understanding of Risk (UR) is negatively related to Perceived Behavioral Control (PBC).

(2)

H2: Attitude

H2a: A better Attitude (ATT) is negatively related to Threat Appraisal (TA).

H2b: A better Attitude (ATT) is negatively related to Coping Appraisal (CA).

H2c: A better Attitude (ATT) is negatively related to Intention to Transition (IT).

(3)

H3: Subjective Norms

H3: A higher Subjective Norm (SN) is negatively related to Intention to Transition (IT).

(4)

H4: Perceived Behavioral Control

H4a: A higher Perceived Behavioral Control (PBC) is negatively related to Threat Appraisal (TA).

H4b: A higher Perceived Behavioral Control (PBC) is negatively related to Coping Appraisal (CA).

H4c: A higher Perceived Behavioral Control (PBC) is negatively related to Intention to Transition (IT).

(5)

H5: Threat Appraisal

H5: A higher Threat Appraisal (TA) is positively related to Intention to Transition (IT).

(6)

H6: Coping Appraisal

H6: A higher Coping Appraisal (CA) is positively related to Intention to Transition (IT).

2. Materials and Methods

This study acknowledges the critical role that the profitability of rubber production and the financial viability of equity capital play in influencing farmers’ behaviors. Despite the absence of detailed price and cost changes within the main text, an overview of the recent trends indicates fluctuations in rubber prices and the associated costs of production that impact the financial performance of rubber farms. Investment needs, driven by technological updates and market demands, further complicate the economic landscape for rubber farmers. An analysis of these financial dimensions is essential to generate a comprehensive understanding of the shifts within Indonesia’s rubber sector.

To capture data with utmost precision, structured interviews are chosen as the primary conduit [32]. Each interview, underpinned by a carefully designed questionnaire, will be conducted in the region’s native tongue, ensuring clear communication and resonance with the farming community [33]. The range of variables embedded in the questionnaire, spanning from risk understanding to transition intentions, is culled from exhaustive scholarly reviews to ensure comprehensive coverage (Table 1).

The questionnaire covers various areas, including demographic characteristics, and various factors from the PMT and TPB (Appendix A). For a representative snapshot of West Kalimantan’s farming demographic, a cluster random sampling technique will be employed [53]. This ensures a diverse cross-section of participants. A semantic differential scale, extending from 1 to 7, will be incorporated, allowing respondents to have a nuanced gradient to capture their perspectives.

This research will harness the analytical capabilities of SEM to elucidate the relationships among observed and latent variables. In this study, the independent variables include Understanding of Risk, Attitude, Subjective Norms, Perceived Behavioral Control, Threat Appraisal, and Coping Appraisal, while Intention to Transition stands as the dependent variable.

Subsequently, the present study utilized a random distribution method to distribute 300 questionnaires among potential participants, resulting in 291 completed responses. In accordance with the best practices in measurement modeling, this research employed a measurement model consisting of 35 observed variables. This approach necessitated a sample size of n = 280 (35 × 8) to ensure adequate statistical power [54,55]. In addressing the selection and representativeness of the 300 survey respondents, this study employed a stratified random sampling method to ensure a wide coverage of rubber farming practices across different regions in Indonesia. The approach aimed to achieve a representative sample, factoring in variations in farm size, geographic location, and production techniques, thereby enhancing the validity of our findings. The methodology section further elaborates on the criteria used for respondent selection, underlining the study’s commitment to capturing a comprehensive snapshot of the rubber farming community’s perspectives.

Navigating the intricate dimensions of farming transitions in West Kalimantan, Indonesia, this study harnesses the quantitative rigor of Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) [56]. Grounded in the foundational principles of the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) and Protection Motivation Theory (PMT) [28,57,58], this research provides an in-depth analytical lens into the evolving determinants shaping the decisions of rubber farmers.

The primary aim of the study is to investigate the cause-and-effect dynamics between latent variables. This is achieved by employing AMOS 22 with the maximum likelihood estimation method for Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) analysis [59]. The SEM framework incorporates seven latent variables, including one exogenous variable, Understanding of Risk, and six endogenous variables: Attitude, Subjective Norms, Perceived Behavioral Control, Threat Appraisal, Coping Appraisal, and Intention to Transition.

The model’s suitability was assessed through six key measurement metrics. These include the Incremental Fit Index (IFI), Tucker–Lewis Index (TLI), Comparative Fit Index (CFI), Goodness of Fit Index (GFI), Adjusted Goodness of Fit Index (AGFI), and the Root Mean Square Error of Approximation (RMSEA). For a model to be considered adequately fitting, the IFI, TLI, and CFI values should surpass the 0.90 threshold. The GFI and AGFI scores need to be above 0.80, reflecting a robust fit similar to the significance of the R2 value in multiple linear regression analysis. Additionally, RMSEA values below 0.07 are indicative of a favorable fit [60].

Ethical fidelity remains paramount throughout the research journey. From safeguarding participant confidentiality to rigorously obtaining informed consents, every research phase is infused with an unwavering commitment to respecting participants’ rights and the distinctive cultural and socio-economic tapestry of West Kalimantan’s farming ecosystem [61].

Yet, embracing academic transparency requires acknowledging potential limitations. From the nuanced spectrum of farmers’ decision-making processes to inherent response biases and the challenges of broader generalizations, the research recognizes these constraints. Through a balance of academic precision and practical adaptability, this methodology aspires to weave insights poised to influence and reshape agricultural transition policies and practices.

3. Results

Exploring the economic productivity of labor on rubber farms reveals a complex picture, where the potential for off-farm employment emerges as a significant factor. This study found a notable trend of farmers diversifying their economic activities beyond rubber production, driven by the comparative profitability of alternative employment. This shift not only reflects the broader economic challenges facing the rubber industry but also highlights the adaptive strategies of farmers in response to these challenges. Quantitative data on the migration from rubber farming to other economic activities underscore the dynamic nature of rural livelihoods in Indonesia.

Figure 2 illustrates the result of the Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) used to evaluate the dynamics of Indonesian rubber farmers transitioning to other agricultural commodities. The SEM analysis, grounded in the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) and Protection Motivation Theory (PMT), revealed that all hypotheses held significant relationships. Additionally, Table 2 showcases the descriptive statistics for each variable, illustrating the nuances in farmers’ perceptions.

The clarity of the descriptive statistics presented in Table 2 is enhanced through an elaborate elucidation of factor loadings and their significance within the context of this study. Factor loadings are instrumental in determining the extent to which each variable contributes to the fundamental factors identified as influential in shaping farmers’ perceptions. Pronounced factor loading indicates a significant association with the respective factor, thereby shedding light on the complexities of farmers’ attitudes and their decision-making processes regarding the transition.

The model fitness indicators, such as the Incremental Fit Index (IFI), Tucker–Lewis Index (TLI), and Comparative Fit Index (CFI), surpassed the recommended threshold of 0.90, affirming the robustness of the hypothesized model against the observed data. The Goodness of Fit Index (GFI) and Adjusted Goodness of Fit Index (AGFI) stood at 0.842 and 0.820, respectively, further validating the model’s effectiveness. Moreover, the Root Mean Square Error of Approximation (RMSEA) was recorded at 0.044, falling below the commonly advised limit and indicating a favorable model fit (Table 3).

Finally, the direct, indirect, and total effects of the variables on farmers’ intention to transition from rubber farming are comprehensively detailed in Table 4. This analysis elucidates the complex interplay of individual attitudes, subjective norms, perceived control, risk understanding, and coping strategies in shaping the farmers’ transition intentions.

4. Discussion

This discussion is initiated with a synthesis of the pivotal findings, emphasizing the impact of risk comprehension, attitudes, and perceived behavioral control on the transition intentions among farmers. This narrative strategy facilitates a seamless transition into a detailed analysis, laying a comprehensive foundation for interpreting the insights gleaned from the statistical tables.

The study’s integration of the Theory of Planned Behavior and Protection Motivation Theory reveals intricate relationships among various factors influencing Indonesian rubber farmers’ decision-making processes. A notable finding is the negative influence of a higher Understanding of Risk (UR) on Attitude (ATT), Subjective Norm (SN), and Perceived Behavioral Control (PBC). This trend indicates that as rubber farmers grow more aware of the inherent risks in their profession, such as market volatility, environmental challenges, and changes in global demand for natural rubber, their overall outlook towards continuing rubber farming becomes less favorable. This diminished enthusiasm is further compounded by decreased social pressure to adhere to traditional farming practices and a lowered sense of control over their agricultural outcomes. The results align with the broader literature on risk perception in agriculture, as highlighted in studies like that conducted by Aghdasi et al. [24], which underscore the profound impact of risk understanding on farmers’ attitudes and behaviors.

Intriguingly, Attitude (ATT) was negatively related to both Threat Appraisal (TA) and Coping Appraisal (CA), and surprisingly, it also showed a negative relationship with Intention to Transition (IT). This suggests that farmers with a more favorable view of rubber farming are less likely to perceive significant threats or feel capable of coping with them, and consequently, they are less inclined to consider transitioning to other forms of agriculture. This may be attributed to a sense of satisfaction or contentment with their current farming practices, possibly due to established market channels, expertise in rubber farming, or community identity linked to this traditional occupation. This phenomenon resonates with the findings of Keshavarz and Karami [37], who discuss the impact of satisfaction and optimism on farmers’ reluctance to change their agricultural practices.

Subjective Norm (SN)’s negative impact on Intention to Transition (IT) is particularly telling. It suggests that social environment and community norms play a crucial role in shaping individual decisions. In rural agricultural communities, where farming practices are often deeply entwined with cultural and social identities, the approval and support for rubber farming exert a strong influence on individual farmers’ choices. This social aspect is critical for policymakers and agricultural extension services aiming to encourage transitions towards more sustainable or diversified agricultural practices.

The relationship between Perceived Behavioral Control (PBC) and both Threat Appraisal (TA) and Coping Appraisal (CA) sheds light on the internal dynamics of decision making in farming. Farmers who feel they have greater control over their farming practices and potential transitions are less likely to perceive threats and feel a need to develop coping strategies. This sense of control might stem from various factors, such as access to resources, knowledge, and experience, influencing their inclination to stick with known and mastered practices rather than venturing into new, uncertain agricultural territories.

Contrastingly, higher Threat Appraisal (TA) positively influenced Intention to Transition (IT), revealing a complex relationship between threat perception and adaptive behavior. This finding suggests that recognizing the significant risks associated with continuing rubber farming, such as economic uncertainties or environmental degradation, can motivate farmers to consider alternative agricultural practices. This perception of threat as a catalyst for change is supported by the work of Delfiyan et al. [45], which emphasizes the role of threat perception in agricultural decision-making processes.

Similarly, a positive relationship between Coping Appraisal (CA) and Intention to Transition (IT) indicates an adaptive mindset among farmers. Those who believe in their ability to manage and cope with challenges are more likely to view the transition to other agricultural practices not as a risk but as an opportunity for growth, innovation, and development. This perspective is crucial in an era where agriculture faces numerous challenges, including climate change, market fluctuations, and technological advancements.

While this study provides comprehensive insights into the dynamics of agricultural decision making in West Kalimantan, its focus on this specific region limits its generalizability across Indonesia. Future research should consider a broader geographic scope to validate these findings and include qualitative methods to gain deeper insights into the individual and collective experiences of farmers. Investigating other factors that might influence these variables, such as broader economic conditions, technological advancements, and policy changes, would provide a more holistic view of agricultural transition in Indonesia.

The findings of this study carry significant implications for the theory and practice of sustainable agriculture among rubber farmers. Theoretically, this research contributes to the environmental behavior literature by demonstrating the applicability of the TPB and PMT in a novel context, thereby enriching our understanding of farmers’ decision-making processes in the face of environmental and economic challenges. Practically, the insights garnered highlight the necessity for targeted interventions that address the specific attitudes, subjective norms, and perceived controls influencing farmers’ transitions to sustainable practices. Policy recommendations emerging from this study emphasize the development of supportive infrastructures, educational programs, and incentives that align with the identified drivers of sustainable agricultural adoption. Such measures are vital for facilitating a broader transition towards sustainability in the agricultural sector, with potential benefits extending beyond environmental conservation to encompass economic resilience and social well-being.

In conclusion, the marginal contribution of this research is twofold. Firstly, it extends the application of the TPB and PMT to the domain of sustainable agriculture among rubber farmers in Indonesia, a context that has been underexplored in existing studies. Secondly, by uncovering the complex interplay of the psychological, social, and environmental factors influencing farmers’ behaviors, this study offers actionable insights for policymakers, practitioners, and researchers dedicated to promoting sustainable agricultural practices. The integration of theoretical frameworks with empirical findings provides a comprehensive understanding of the barriers and enablers of sustainability transitions, thereby paving the way for more effective and context-specific interventions.

5. Conclusions

This research, grounded in the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) and the Protection Motivation Theory (PMT), provides a comprehensive understanding of the factors influencing Indonesian rubber farmers’ decisions to transition from traditional rubber farming to diverse agricultural practices. The findings from this study offer significant insights into the complex interplay of the psychological and practical factors in the agricultural domain.

This study revealed that higher understanding of risk negatively impacts farmers’ attitudes towards rubber farming, their adherence to social norms, and their perceived behavioral control. This underscores the crucial role of risk perception in agricultural decision making, resonating with the findings from the contemporary literature. Farmers’ attitude towards rubber farming, influenced by their satisfaction and optimism, was found to be negatively related to their threat and coping appraisal, and unexpectedly, to their intention to transition. This suggests a deeply rooted preference for traditional practices, potentially due to established market relationships or a sense of community identity.

Furthermore, this study highlighted the significant influence of subjective norms on the farmers’ intention to transition. The approval and support from the community serve as a strong deterrent against transitioning away from traditional practices, emphasizing the need for community-level interventions in any transition strategy. The perceived behavioral control, reflecting farmers’ confidence in managing farming challenges, also showed a negative relationship with both threat appraisal and coping appraisal, as well as their intention to transition. This suggests that farmers confident in their current practices are less likely to perceive threats and thus less inclined to change.

Contrary to expectations, higher threat appraisal positively influenced intention to transition. This indicates that recognizing significant risks associated with continuing rubber farming can motivate farmers to consider alternative agricultural practices. Similarly, a higher coping appraisal positively influenced intention to transition, suggesting that farmers who feel capable of managing threats are more open to exploring new agricultural opportunities.

This study’s focus on West Kalimantan, while providing in-depth insights, limits its generalizability across Indonesia. Future research should expand the geographic scope and potentially incorporate qualitative methods to capture a more nuanced understanding of farmers’ experiences and decision-making processes. Investigating other factors such as economic conditions, technological advancements, and policy changes will provide a more holistic view of agricultural transition in Indonesia.

The conclusions drawn from this investigation provide refined insights into the dynamics of rubber farming in Indonesia, highlighting the critical role of economic factors, environmental concerns, and policy frameworks in shaping sustainable agricultural transitions. Contrary to the broad generalizations often found in the literature, this study delineates specific pathways through which rubber farmers navigate the complexities of sustainability, profitability, and resilience. The nuanced understanding gleaned from this research not only enriches the academic discourse on agricultural sustainability but also offers practical guidance for policymakers, stakeholders, and practitioners aiming to support rubber farmers in their transition towards more sustainable practices. It is through such detailed and context-aware conclusions that this study aims to bridge the gap between theoretical research and on-the-ground agricultural realities.

In conclusion, this study contributes significantly to our understanding of the determinants influencing Indonesian rubber farmers’ transitions to sustainable practices. The integration of the TPB and PMT offers a nuanced perspective on how internal, social, and external factors shape these decisions. These insights are vital for developing informed strategies and policies to support sustainable agricultural transitions in Indonesia, aligning with global sustainability goals and the evolving dynamics of the agricultural sector.

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